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98 Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity struggled to adapt private-sector technologies to improve performance, and DoD would likely benefit from using more private-sector technology and adapting best commercial practices. DoD defense and space programs have satisfied U.S. defense needs and generated valuable spin-offs, however inefficient the process of creating defense-related technology may be. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke recently remarked that the U.S. defense budget is what passes for industrial policy in the United States. 87 And these defense investments have yielded tremendous civilian rewards, including the creation of the Internet and the driverless car, both born as a result of funding at DoD’s Advance Research Projects Agency, and the Global Positioning System, developed by the military. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter has made a special effort of reaching out to Silicon Valley. Regardless of its views on economic and industrial policy, the next administration should consider investing more in basic scientific research across the defense and civil sectors. The Obama administration’s emphasis on stimulating innovation in carbon-free energy technology is expected to be slowed or reversed by the Trump administration, which has promised to increase domestic energy exploitation. 88 The revolution in extraction technologies, commonly referred to as “fracking,” increases global supplies and therefore helps reduce the price of petroleum, increases availability and lowers the cost of natural gas as an input to manufacturing, and reduces the U.S. trade deficit. But even as its energy imports decline, the United States will remain exposed to global supply and price volatility because the world market for petroleum is unified. However, any breakthrough on zero-carbon energy technologies would be a game-changer. Private and philanthropic capital is already flowing to such projects. The strategic and political question for the next administration is whether it is essential to the United States that the leading forms of green-energy technologies be developed and patented by American citizens and/or developed by U.S. corporations. 87 Ben S. Bernanke, “Proceedings,” The Defense Economy and American Prosperity, Washington, D.C., August 17, 2015. 88 Trump, 2016.
Leveraging U.S. Strengths, Dealing with Vulnerabilities 99 If it considers such technologies to be crucial to U.S. competitiveness, the next administration might consider supporting a carbon tax or cap-and-trade market system to incentivize low-carbon technology development and to promote basic scientific research and advancement of knowledge for all, as opposed to providing federal funding for research on specific energy technologies (an approach often criticized as a futile attempt to “pick winners”). If not, the United States must accept the risk that its competitors, including European and Asian nations that have adopted “green” industrial policies, may pioneer breakthrough technologies. Following this line of reasoning, the next administration also might expand research on basic science relevant to medicine and health policy, focusing on R&D of treatments and devices that advance public health but are unlikely to generate short-term profits. 89 This may be beneficial for a number of reasons. Domestically, U.S. health care costs will consume an ever-larger share of GDP as the population ages, absent changes to the cost and efficacy of American medicine. Internationally, medical knowledge and technology present both a commercial growth market and a realm where U.S. interventions have alleviated misery and generated global goodwill. Public Opinion The overarching question of how deleterious the effects of income inequality and job displacement are on America’s ability to lead globally is beyond the scope of this discussion. The immediate problem for national strategy is whether the United States can maintain a robust, far-sighted foreign policy if a significant portion of the electorate believes that the economic components of that policy are not advanc- 89 The Gates Foundation funding for vaccine development is one example. Another comes from the not-for-profit Benetech, which adapts for use in humanitarian endeavors technologies that were developed by the private sector but abandoned as not economically promising. Various forms of government partnerships with so-called “social entrepreneurs” matching grants for private investment in other start-ups and similar attempts to use government financing as a bridge to private venture capital are under way through the U.S. Small Business Association.
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STRATEGIC RETHINK STRATEGIC CHOICES
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Preface This is the sixth and final
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Preface v The RAND Strategic Rethin
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viii Strategic Choices for a Turbul
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Contents Preface...................
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Contents xiii Middle East..........
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Summary For more than seven decades
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Summary xix deal with because of it
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Summary xxi Familiarity does not ne
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Summary xxiii Whatever else is on t
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Summary xxv of richest Americans, i
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Summary xxvii reexamination arises
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Summary xxix Dwight Eisenhower—wh
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Summary xxxi of ISIS, the migration
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Acknowledgments RAND Corporation Pr
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CHAPTER ONE Introduction What is Am
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Introduction 3 that some allies hav
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Introduction 5 of distrust of the g
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Introduction 7 live with. Therefore
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Introduction 9 Bruce Jones points o
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Introduction 11 force decision make
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Introduction 13 United States for l
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CHAPTER TWO From Triumph to Stalema
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From Triumph to Stalemate: The Loss
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CHAPTER THREE Is the World Falling
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Is the World Falling Apart (And How
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CHAPTER EIGHT Option II: “The Ind
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Option II: “The Indispensable Nat
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CHAPTER NINE Option III: “Agile A
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Option III: “Agile America”: Ad
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CODA The Challenge of Leadership: A
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The Challenge of Leadership: Aligni
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STRATEGIC

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