STRATEGIC

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Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity
ments to bend the long-term trend lines in U.S. favor. The United
States possesses enormous strengths and competitive advantages that
have enabled it to thrive for more than a century in the face of determined
adversaries. Chief among them have been the adaptability of the
nation and its citizens in confronting daunting challenges, domestic
and international; its culture of innovation; and its ability to garner
friends and partners across the globe. At the same time, the country
also has structural economic weaknesses, deep political and cultural
divisions, problems in its labor market, and unprecedented levels of
national debt. If not addressed, the political ramifications of these vulnerabilities
may constrain the ability of the United States to mount an
effective, coherent foreign policy.
There is growing national debate over a wide range of indicators
that a segment of American society is failing to thrive, partly because of
socioeconomic problems that have not been mitigated by recovery from
the Great Recession. The “downward mobility” of some formerly middleclass
Americans is more than an economic phenomenon. Americans also
now have shorter life expectancy and worse health outcomes than their
counterparts in other affluent nations. Mortality rates of white males
ages 45 to 54 have increased for the first time, 4 as has the suicide rate. 5
A Federal Reserve survey found that 31 percent of Americans said they
were “struggling to get by” or “just getting by” financially. 6 This failure
to thrive among nearly one-third of the population raises the question of
how to improve job prospects, economic well-being, and financial security,
without hurting the incentive systems that keep the U.S. economy
strong. Whatever future administrations’ policies toward the “1 percent”
4 Anne Case and Angus Deaton, “Rising Morbidity and Mortality in Midlife Among
White Non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st Century,” Proceedings of the National Academy of
Sciences, Vol. 112, No. 49, December 8, 2015.
5 Erin M. Sullivan et al., “Suicide Among Adults Aged 35–64 Years—United States, 1999–
2010,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report,
Vol. 62, No. 17, May 3, 2013, pp. 321–325.
6 Consumer and Community Development Research Section of the Federal Reserve
Board’s Division of Consumer and Community Affairs, Report on the Economic Well-Being
of U.S. Households in 2015, Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System, May 2016.