STRATEGIC

From Triumph to Stalemate: The Loss of American Consensus 33
images of U.S. Special Forces riding on horseback to apparent victory in
Afghanistan, or the falling statue of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad—the
results were fleeting. Insurgent activities grew, casualties mounted, and
atrocities came to light. International criticism over the conduct of the
wars dented U.S. credibility on matters of human rights and international
law. The searing images from the Abu Ghraib prison in 2004 triggered
domestic and international criticism; a decade later, similarly searing
images of Iraqi and Syrian casualties and desperate refugees triggered
international horror but little remedial action. Despite an early sense of
achievement that came with both wars, the lingering effects have been of
disappointment, frustration, and even failure. Doubts soared regarding
the ability of U.S. forces to succeed in far away conflicts.
The opportunity costs of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars are not
easy to measure. They remain the subject of acrimonious debate in
which the cost of the Iraq War has been compared with the opportunity
to fund preschools, college tuitions, 34 or more investment in physical
infrastructure. 35
Meanwhile, there is growing national debate over a wide range of
indicators that a segment of American society is failing to thrive, partly
because of socioeconomic problems that have not been mitigated by
recovery from the Great Recession. The “downward mobility” of some
formerly middle-class Americans is more than an economic phenomenon.
Americans also now have shorter life expectancy and worse health
outcomes than their counterparts in other affluent nations. 36 Mortality
34 Student loan debt totals more than $1.2 trillion, owed by 41 million Americans, with
more than one in four borrowers in delinquency or default. Consumer Financial Protection
Bureau, Student Loan Servicing: Analysis of Public Input and Recommendations for Reform,
Washington, D.C., September 2015.
35 American Society of Civil Engineers, “Report Card for America’s Infrastructure,” web
page, 2013. While civil engineers, it should be acknowledged, are an interested party, the
report estimated that $3.6 trillion in infrastructure investments were required by 2020,
slightly higher than the then-estimates of the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
36 Mauricio Avendano and Ichiro Kawachi, “Why Do Americans Have Shorter Life Expectancy
and Worse Health Than People in Other High-Income Countries?” Annual Review
of Public Health, Vol. 35, 2014; Elizabeth Arias, “Changes in Life Expectancy by Race and
Hispanic Origin in the United States, 2013–2014,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,
NCHS Data Brief, No. 244, April 2016.