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182 Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity envisions a retooled approach to globalization to serve the American people amid changing U.S. geo-economic and security interests. In this concept, policymakers would not merely seek a middle ground between international restraint and activism; rather, they would attempt to reconceive America’s role in a world that continues to change and will be substantially altered (see List 9.1). A muddle-through, reactive approach in which U.S. leaders clutch hard to a 20th-century vision of American primacy will not build the economic strength, flexibility, competitiveness, innovation, or sense of shared national purpose that the country needs to prosper over the coming decades. This strategic concept would unshackle the United States from the foreign policy of the past in order to allow the country to pursue a 21st-century agenda of prosperity and opportunity. Here, policymakers assume that global change will be at least as rapid and disruptive as in the past, and probably more so. Developing and poorly governed countries are particularly likely to experience increased stress and instability for the next several decades at least, stemming from the addition of another billion people to a warming planet. The economic geography of the world will change, shifting dramatically toward Asia, and U.S. interests will follow. The United States may need to build new security infrastructures that align with its new pursuits, and be willing to abandon or at least downgrade old ones that no longer serve. Opportunities will abound in the world, but the United States will be unable to seize them if it is bogged down in defending “interests” whose saliency is fading. The United States is well equipped to thrive in the intense global competition of the 21st century. As discussed in Chapter Four, its economy is the most vibrant and resilient in the world. Its labor force is highly skilled, educated, and adaptable. Its private-sector institutions know how to drive continuous improvement in all processes relevant to their businesses. This cycle of continuous innovation in the use of technologies or management practices is even more important than the technological innovation itself. The country’s energy future is brighter than at any time in half a century. Falling oil prices benefit U.S. consumers, while producers stand to benefit when prices inevitably rebound. The U.S. higher education system—despite its high cost—remains the envy of the world.
Option III: “Agile America”: Adapt and Compete in a Changing World 183 List 9.1 “Agile America” at a Glance • The United States may not dominate the world economy, but it should be the world’s most competitive and innovative economy. National security derives from prosperity. • Remain fully engaged in the world and attempt to expand the liberal economic order, but be more selective about the use of military force. Economic statecraft is a highly underdeveloped element of U.S. foreign policy. • Globalization will make American alliances, international partnerships, and friendships more valuable than ever. Cultivate them by emphasizing an agenda of common prosperity. • Global change will be at least as rapid as in the past, and the United States must be more flexible to take advantage of geo-economic shifts. The United States will reassess the saliency of interests and move away from those that no longer serve its current needs. Managing the economic relationship with China is the top priority. Some accommodation of China may be necessary and even advisable, but not at the cost of ceding East Asia to a Chinese sphere of influence. • Manufacturing jobs will not return to the United States in large numbers. Only the development of a highly skilled, better-educated workforce can support high-wage employment, entrepreneurship, and GDP growth. • Russia will seek to discredit the United States as a security partner, and divide and weaken NATO. It might well pressure or attack non-NATO members and possibly even vulnerable NATO states. But with proper cooperation among partners, Russia can be dissuaded and deterred. • U.S. interests in the Middle East are declining over time and so should U.S. involvement. As in the restraint option, radical jihadist ideology cannot be “defeated,” certainly not by non-Muslim powers. • Serious impacts of climate change can still be avoided. The best way to ensure this is to develop new technologies that can reduce the cost of decarbonization. The United States would consider a carbon tax to speed this process. The best way to build an international climate regime is to do so through a “bottom-up” series of bilateral and multilateral agreements. a Technology-driven decarbonization will also generate opportunities for U.S. businesses. a D. G. Victor, J. House, and S. Joy, “A Madisonian Approach to Climate Policy,” Science, Vol. 309, 2005. And while basic infrastructure is in need of investment, many key urban centers are undergoing a renaissance and rebirth. Moreover, the United States still remains the partner of choice across most of the globe. Its diplomatic, commercial, and cultural relationships in Europe, East Asia, Africa, and Latin America remain strong and productive. Commerce with Latin America and Africa has expanded. But for the Middle East, global violence is at historically low
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STRATEGIC RETHINK STRATEGIC CHOICES
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Preface This is the sixth and final
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Preface v The RAND Strategic Rethin
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viii Strategic Choices for a Turbul
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Contents Preface...................
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Contents xiii Middle East..........
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Summary For more than seven decades
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Summary xix deal with because of it
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Summary xxi Familiarity does not ne
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Summary xxiii Whatever else is on t
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Summary xxv of richest Americans, i
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Summary xxvii reexamination arises
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Summary xxix Dwight Eisenhower—wh
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Summary xxxi of ISIS, the migration
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Acknowledgments RAND Corporation Pr
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CHAPTER ONE Introduction What is Am
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Introduction 3 that some allies hav
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Introduction 5 of distrust of the g
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Introduction 7 live with. Therefore
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Introduction 9 Bruce Jones points o
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Introduction 11 force decision make
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Introduction 13 United States for l
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CHAPTER TWO From Triumph to Stalema
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From Triumph to Stalemate: The Loss
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CHAPTER THREE Is the World Falling
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Is the World Falling Apart (And How
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Figure 3.4 Map of Climate Change Ho
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CHAPTER FOUR Leveraging U.S. Streng
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Leveraging U.S. Strengths, Dealing
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