STRATEGIC

Option II: “The Indispensable Nation”: America as Promoter of World Order 179
need to make a persuasive case that the dangers of overreach are outweighed
by the costs of losing relative power to rivals who do not share
its values. Unfortunately, this case is more easily made in the wake of
tragedy.
A European Union weakened by the departure of the United
Kingdom or other important members will be a less effective partner
for the United States. It will consume more U.S. diplomatic resources,
create more complexity in trade, and constrain the agility of the U.S.–
EU alliance. Washington should do what it can to encourage other EU
members to stay.
Risks
Overreach remains the chief risk for the “Indispensable Nation” strategic
orientation. Unmanageable chaos in the Middle East, worsening relations
with Russia and China, sluggish economic growth, worsening federal
debt, and weak allies could all thwart U.S. plans. Specific risks include:
• The Middle East quagmire continues. Conflict persists in Syria,
Yemen, Libya, and/or elsewhere, sending more refugees into
Europe. U.S. involvement drives more jihadists to the ISIS cause.
Or, ISIS is ousted from Syria and Libya only to take root elsewhere,
or transform into a new terrorist entity that can wage war
on the West even without a territorial base.
• Public support fades as time goes on and U.S. casualties mount.
• U.S. military buildup frightens Russian and/or Chinese leadership
and prompts them to take a more aggressive stance if they see
Washington as threatening. An arms race may ensue.
• There might be an increased risk of being required to contest areas
of minimal U.S. interest with Russia or China in the process of
defending allies.
• Tax hikes and/or increases in debt are required. Either might
weaken the U.S. economy.
• An activist American international profile increases the nation’s
exposure to hostility and attack.