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224 Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity of American concerns. If the world continued to experience problems and turmoil, most were perceived to be kept safely at a distance. The 9/11 attacks brought home the threat of terrorism that remains uppermost in the American consciousness to this day. In response to terrorist threats, both the Bush and the Obama administrations resorted to military responses and neither found effective ways to engage the ideological struggle. 30 The Bush administration committed substantial forces in Afghanistan and Iraq but left the country reeling with the sense of never-ending wars—and the sentiment that the United States is not particularly good at fighting these types of wars. The Obama administration bought time with the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran. The issue, however, is at best deferred and hardly resolved. Future presidents will almost certainly be contending with Iran’s nuclear and political ambitions and all that they portend for the highly volatile region. Concerns about a nuclear proliferation cascade throughout the Middle East—first Iran, followed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and even Egypt—have been put on hold for now but not for all time. The same holds true for North Korea and its nuclear ambitions. For decades, the long game has been to keep North Korea in check in expectation of its ultimate collapse. The regime that many said could never survive has proven to have exceptional longevity. Left unchecked, North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs not only present an immediate threat to its neighbors—and, ultimately, the United States—but could also have cascading effects throughout East Asia, as South Korea and Japan contemplate how to respond to this new security dynamic, even seeking nuclear arsenals of their own should they lose confidence in the U.S. nuclear umbrella. While the United States and China share a strategic interest in limiting North Korea’s ambitions, progress has been thwarted by Beijing’s more immediate concern about preventing a collapse of the North Korean government and a resulting migration crisis on its borders. 30 Angel Rabasa, “Where Are We in the ‘War of Ideas’?” in Brian Michael Jenkins and John Paul Godges, eds., The Long Shadow of 9/11: America’s Response to Terrorism, Santa Monica, Calif.: RAND Corporation, MG-1107-RC, 2011.
How to Choose 225 The hopes that Russia would join the larger zone of democratic peace have been dashed for now. President Putin is playing a particularly aggressive, dangerous game in trying to reinstall a buffer along Russia’s periphery. Given the state of Russia’s economy, to say nothing of its demography, it is possible that Russia may have found the limits of its reach. But there is abundant danger in Russia’s ongoing probing, including, perhaps, by interfering in the U.S. political process, and it remains one of the few powers that is capable of threatening the United States directly. As we already noted, making good on U.S. commitments to the newest NATO partners will be an important obligation for the next administration. This should be done in a way that does not encourage Russian adventurism elsewhere. Limiting regret with respect to climate change represents one of the biggest gambles of all. The consequences on national and international economic and social well-being for generations to come could be staggering. The next President and Congress will decide whether U.S. leadership means taking a cautious wait-and-see approach to the science of climate change as national policy; muddling along with adaptation actions and hoping other countries bear the burden of emissions reductions (just in case); or striking an aggressive position on adaptation and massive investment in decarbonizing the economy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as well as sequestration should it prove necessary. As already discussed, the vast range of uncertainty over the costs of action and inaction makes decisionmaking especially difficult. The next President and Congress will soon be placing their bets, but they would be well advised to consider the benefits of an adaptive but still bold approach to tackling a problem whose odds will only grow longer. Whatever the path chosen, U.S. leaders will want to demonstrate that they have taken all reasonable efforts to limit regret when it comes to securing the American people and territory from serious harm. It is their duty to protect the country, even against unlikely events, when the consequences could be grave and irrevocable. The American people deserve a government that has clarity on potential threats and a credible plan of action.
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STRATEGIC RETHINK STRATEGIC CHOICES
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Preface This is the sixth and final
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Preface v The RAND Strategic Rethin
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viii Strategic Choices for a Turbul
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Contents Preface...................
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Contents xiii Middle East..........
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Summary For more than seven decades
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Summary xix deal with because of it
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Summary xxi Familiarity does not ne
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Summary xxiii Whatever else is on t
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Summary xxv of richest Americans, i
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Summary xxvii reexamination arises
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Summary xxix Dwight Eisenhower—wh
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Summary xxxi of ISIS, the migration
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Acknowledgments RAND Corporation Pr
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CHAPTER ONE Introduction What is Am
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Introduction 3 that some allies hav
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Introduction 5 of distrust of the g
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Introduction 7 live with. Therefore
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Introduction 9 Bruce Jones points o
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Introduction 11 force decision make
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Introduction 13 United States for l
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CHAPTER TWO From Triumph to Stalema
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From Triumph to Stalemate: The Loss
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CHAPTER THREE Is the World Falling
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Is the World Falling Apart (And How
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Figure 3.4 Map of Climate Change Ho
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CHAPTER FOUR Leveraging U.S. Streng
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Leveraging U.S. Strengths, Dealing
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Part Two Strategic Choices
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CHAPTER EIGHT Option II: “The Ind
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Option II: “The Indispensable Nat
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