STRATEGIC

200 Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity
mote energy R&D and U.S. commercial interests in innovative energy
technologies across all major sectors of the economy. Adaptation actions
described in the restraint option would apply here but mitigation actions
would be added to the mix. A carbon tax or other market-based mechanisms
could be implemented to promote innovation and drive lowcarbon
technology costs down. Tax incentives for carbon sequestration
might also be considered. While the United States would be an active
player in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, it may
rely most heavily on a bottom-up process of harmonizing climate policies
among countries already seeking reductions, rather than focus on a
global consensus on controlling emissions.
Constraints
Such a redefinition of American national self-identity could be politically
fraught. For example, the Obama administration’s effort to deal
with political chaos in Libya through collaborative efforts was attacked
after an aide was reported to have called it “leading from behind.” 20
Attempts to collaborate with China on cybersecurity or to stress diplomacy
rather than the use of force in Syria have elicited accusations of
U.S. weakness. Negotiations with such adversaries as Russia and Iran
on issues of shared interest will remain subject to attack unless tangible
benefits accrue. Differences in U.S. public opinion on climate change,
particularly related to taxation or tax-like proposals on carbon consumption,
could constrain action.
Risks
This strategy would aim to reduce risk by investing more effort in
anticipation and resilience to insure against low-probability/highconsequence
outcomes. It fails if domestic economic growth is not
20 The term was attributed to an Obama “adviser” in Ryan Lilla, “The Consequentialist,”
New Yorker, May 2, 2011. The White House insisted it never used the phrase.