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210 Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity More broadly, the United States should also develop plans to engage the developing world in the wake of China’s likely, if only temporary, retreat as its economy slows. Commodity prices have fallen precipitously, and many in the developing world that had tied their economic futures to China’s unabated growth are now looking to expand their networks of economic relationships. The IMF and the World Bank expect robust growth in India, the Southeast Asian countries, and sub- Saharan Africa, although growth in Latin America and the Caribbean is projected to lag. 10 Despite such fluctuations, the developing world is expected to grow more than twice as fast as the high-income countries, creating opportunities to forge new bonds that would benefit the United States and these emerging economies. Women The United States has led the world in improving the lives of women and girls around the world. It is well positioned to do more, sowing good will and, in particular, helping female entrepreneurs and farmers, who are viewed by the development community as drivers of sustainable economic growth and political stability. Women entrepreneurs are estimated to have a credit gap estimated at between $260 billion and $320 billion, 11 presenting an investment opportunity for U.S. businesses and charities, but also a way for the U.S. government to engage in ways that are often nonthreatening to governments. Global initiatives to improve women’s education and public health are generally seen as more successful than other forms of development aid. The World Bank has identified girls’ education as a “strategic development priority.” 10 Shatz, 2016, pp. 43–49. 11 IFC Advisory Services, Closing the Credit Gap for Formal and Informal Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises, Washington, D.C.: International Finance Corporation, 2013, p. 19. Sarah Kaplan and Jackie VanderBrug, “The Rise of Gender Capitalism,” Stanford Social Innovation Review, Fall 2014. A lack of empirical research on which programs are most successful prompted USAID to commission a multiyear project to study the issue.
How to Choose 211 Energy The revolution in extraction technologies, commonly referred to as “fracking,” has already had a major geopolitical effect. The United States now ranks tenth in the world in proven oil reserves and fifth in natural gas reserves. 12 U.S. exports of natural gas to Europe could, over time, reduce dependence on Russian energy supplies. Current low world oil prices de-incentivize efficiency improvements and endanger political stability in many energy-extracting countries, such as Venezuela. Yet these developments, along with the inability of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to enforce production quotas, offer diplomatic opportunity to revisit and potentially improve U.S. relations with producer countries. A sustained decline in oil prices would constrain the ability of such rich oil states as Russia and Saudi Arabia to underwrite a more activist foreign policy over the long term. Domestically, the money saved on foreign oil purchases could help improve the U.S. trade balance, but only if the money saved on foreign oil imports is not used to import other goods. Any breakthrough on zero-carbon energy technologies has the potential to be a geopolitical game-changer, and so deserves careful attention. Mistakes as Opportunities The next administration should plan for and take advantage of the multiple scenarios in which Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, or ISIS makes a serious strategic mistake. Intimidation or aggression creates an opportunity to improve U.S. security and economic relations with Russia’s and China’s neighbors, particularly democracies that do not wish to fall under the shadow of an authoritarian hegemon. Specifically, the United States might reassure key East Asian allies in light of China’s aggressive posture in the East China Sea and the South China Sea to reaffirm America’s security partnerships, offer military sales and provide assistance where needed, negotiate military access to help partners with particular problems, and position U.S. forces for possible wider regional responses. Over the last decade, there has been considerable discussion of China’s investment in A2/AD capabilities—military investments designed to create 12 British Petroleum, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014, London, June 2014.
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STRATEGIC RETHINK STRATEGIC CHOICES
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Preface This is the sixth and final
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Preface v The RAND Strategic Rethin
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viii Strategic Choices for a Turbul
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Contents Preface...................
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Contents xiii Middle East..........
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Summary For more than seven decades
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Summary xix deal with because of it
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Summary xxi Familiarity does not ne
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Summary xxiii Whatever else is on t
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Summary xxv of richest Americans, i
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Summary xxvii reexamination arises
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Summary xxix Dwight Eisenhower—wh
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Summary xxxi of ISIS, the migration
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Acknowledgments RAND Corporation Pr
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CHAPTER ONE Introduction What is Am
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Introduction 3 that some allies hav
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Introduction 5 of distrust of the g
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Introduction 7 live with. Therefore
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Introduction 9 Bruce Jones points o
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Introduction 11 force decision make
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Introduction 13 United States for l
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CHAPTER TWO From Triumph to Stalema
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From Triumph to Stalemate: The Loss
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CHAPTER THREE Is the World Falling
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Is the World Falling Apart (And How
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Figure 3.4 Map of Climate Change Ho
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CHAPTER FOUR Leveraging U.S. Streng
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Leveraging U.S. Strengths, Dealing
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Part Two Strategic Choices
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STRATEGIC

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