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xii Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity CHAPTER FOUR Leveraging U.S. Strengths, Dealing with Vulnerabilities ................75 U.S. Strengths......................................................................76 U.S. Vulnerabilities................................................................81 CHAPTER FIVE Anticipation, Deterrence, and Resilience.................................. 105 Working on the Anticipation Equation....................................... 109 (Re)Learning What it Takes to Deter......................................... 119 Building in Resilience........................................................... 129 PART TWO Strategic Choices................................................................ 137 CHAPTER SIX About Strategy—Grand or Otherwise ..................................... 139 What Is Strategy, Anyway?..................................................... 142 Defining National Interests .................................................... 144 CHAPTER SEVEN Option I: “Come Home America”: Domestic Renewal, International Restraint................................................... 149 Global Economy................................................................. 152 Russia.............................................................................. 154 China.............................................................................. 156 Middle East....................................................................... 157 Defense and Defense Spending................................................ 158 Climate Change.................................................................. 161 Constraints ....................................................................... 163 Risks............................................................................... 164 CHAPTER EIGHT Option II: “The Indispensable Nation”: America as Promoter of World Order................................................................ 169 Global Economy................................................................. 172 Russia.............................................................................. 172 China.............................................................................. 174
Contents xiii Middle East....................................................................... 175 Defense and Defense Spending................................................ 176 Climate Change.................................................................. 177 Constraints........................................................................ 178 Risks............................................................................... 179 CHAPTER NINE Option III: “Agile America”: Adapt and Compete in a Changing World........................................................... 181 Global Economy ................................................................. 190 Russia.............................................................................. 194 China.............................................................................. 195 Middle East....................................................................... 196 Defense and Defense Spending................................................ 197 Climate Change.................................................................. 199 Constraints .......................................................................200 Risks...............................................................................200 CHAPTER TEN How to Choose.................................................................. 203 Scrutinize Assumptions......................................................... 205 Seize Opportunities.............................................................. 207 Uphold Commitments.......................................................... 213 Play Both the Long and Short Games......................................... 216 Align Interests and Values....................................................... 218 Limit Regret...................................................................... 223 CODA The Challenge of Leadership: Aligning Vision, Values, Interests, and Resources.................................................................... 227 APPENDIX Excerpts from the Conversation on Grand Strategy..................... 231 Abbreviations.................................................................... 243 References........................................................................ 245
Page 1 and 2: STRATEGIC RETHINK STRATEGIC CHOICES
Page 3 and 4: Preface This is the sixth and final
Page 5: Preface v The RAND Strategic Rethin
Page 8 and 9: viii Strategic Choices for a Turbul
Page 11: Contents Preface...................
Page 17 and 18: Summary For more than seven decades
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Page 21 and 22: Summary xxi Familiarity does not ne
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Page 27 and 28: Summary xxvii reexamination arises
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Page 35 and 36: CHAPTER ONE Introduction What is Am
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From Triumph to Stalemate: The Loss
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CHAPTER THREE Is the World Falling
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Is the World Falling Apart (And How
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Part Two Strategic Choices
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