STRATEGIC

12 Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity
This volume argues that they must develop strategies that not
only advance U.S. interests but also hedge against failure. Furthermore,
any national strategy for this turbulent age must strengthen the
U.S. capacity to anticipate, prevent, or withstand the inevitable surprises.
Chapter Five discusses three specific policymaking approaches
that the United States could cultivate to prepare for this uncertain
world: anticipation, deterrence, and resilience. Working on improving
anticipation can help federal, state, and local governments consider risk
along a better-defined spectrum, and help policymakers prioritize their
efforts. Working on deterrence can better clarify U.S. interests and
stakes, demonstrate those stakes to would-be aggressors, and thereby
avoid war. Working on resilience can help the nation withstand shocks
and “build back better” physical and social infrastructure than what
may be destroyed by natural or manmade disasters. No matter what
path the United States follows, it will require a sophisticated understanding
of deterrence and resilience to form the bedrock of national
security. We also suggest that the next President and Congress update
the mechanisms of national security planning and decisionmaking to
foster more agile and effective governance. 24
The concluding chapter challenges the reader to think more
deeply not only about which strategic concept and associated policies to
choose, but also about how to choose them. In a world of limited U.S.
power, influence, and resources, choices are required. Failure to make
decisions is also a choice, and often not a wise one. We offer criteria
that may be helpful when making hard decisions in the face of uncertainty:
the need to scrutinize assumptions, seize opportunities, uphold
U.S. commitments, play both the long and the short games, align U.S.
interests with values, and limit regret.
Today’s problems are not insurmountable, and opportunities can
be exploited. Nor are our times more daunting than those faced by
previous generations of Americans. Much of the world still looks to the
24 Ries, Charles P., Improving Decisionmaking in a Turbulent World, Santa Monica, Calif.:
RAND Corporation, PE-192-RC, 2016.