STRATEGIC

About Strategy—Grand or Otherwise 147
of technology or the promotion of innovation. And the United States
cannot succeed in its international goals if its domestic policies are not
aligned with these objectives. Therefore, domestic policies that are relevant
to broader international policy are also discussed, albeit in brief.
Naturally, the success of any strategy depends on whether the
underlying assumptions prove correct, and thus, whether the strategy
is well timed and appropriate to the specific circumstances in which
the United States finds itself. An illustration of the interaction between
strategies and outcomes is shown in Table 6.1. The best outcomes occur
when the assumptions that led to a particular strategic choice come
true. The worst outcomes happen when the world that was envisioned
is not the world that is encountered. The problem is analogous to the
dilemma of a homeowner trying to decide how much insurance to purchase.
If the United States expends a large amount on national defense
and security and the world proves more peaceful than expected, it will
have overspent on insurance at the expense of domestic priorities. If it
slashes spending for security and international affairs, retreats from its
Table 6.1
Strategies and Outcomes
Strategy Chosen
“Come Home America”
Domestic renewal,
international restraint
“Come Home
America”
Assumptions
Come to Pass
“Indispensable
Nation”
Assumptions
Come to Pass
“Agile America”
Assumptions
Come to Pass
Best
World more
threatening to
U.S. interests;
nation
underinsured
Insufficient
innovation;
others define
rules of global
trade
“Indispensable Nation”
Promoter of world order
World less
threatening;
drained
resources; nation
overinsured
Best
U.S. indebted;
economic
growth suffers;
U.S. not well
positioned
for new
opportunities
“Agile America”
Adapt and compete in a
changing world
Drained
resources; U.S.
actions create
tensions where
they may not
have existed
Others lead or
chaos spreads
Best