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Leveraging U.S. Strengths, Dealing with Vulnerabilities 87<br />
and 31 percent had no retirement savings at all. 47 Overall, 69 percent<br />
of adults said they were “living comfortably” or “doing okay” in 2015,<br />
up from 62 percent in 2013—and the improvement was reported even<br />
among households headed by someone with a high school education<br />
or less. At the same time, 31 percent said they were “struggling to get<br />
by” or “just getting by.” 48 This failure to thrive among nearly onethird<br />
of the U.S. population raises the question of how to improve job<br />
prospects, economic well-being, and financial security without hurting<br />
the incentive systems that keep the U.S. economy strong. 49 Whatever<br />
future administrations’ policies toward the “1 percent” of richest<br />
Americans, its policies toward the “31 percent” may prove most crucial<br />
in restoring political unity, as well as the U.S. position in the world.<br />
Skills and Education<br />
University and postgraduate education has been a traditional strength,<br />
and one that will be increasingly vital to U.S. international competitiveness.<br />
By one estimate, 50 the world faces a potential shortage of<br />
38 million to 40 million college-educated workers as early as 2020,<br />
or a 13-percent undersupply, while it will have a potential surplus of<br />
90 million to 95 million low-skill workers, roughly a 10-percent oversupply.<br />
This mismatch is expected to be particularly acute in the developing<br />
world, but employers in the advanced economies are projected<br />
to need 16 million to 18 million more college graduates than will be<br />
produced by 2020, despite rising college completion rates. The United<br />
States is projected to lack 5 million workers with postsecondary edu-<br />
47 Consumer and Community Development Research Section of the Federal Reserve<br />
Board’s Division of Consumer and Community Affairs, 2016.<br />
48 Fifteen percent of households said they were spending more than they earned.<br />
49 Francis Fukuyama defined the challenge somewhat differently, as “to see whether it is<br />
possible to back away from globalization without cratering both the national and the global<br />
economy, with the goal of trading a little aggregate national income for greater domestic<br />
income equality.” Francis Fukuyama, “American Political Decay or Renewal? The Meaning<br />
of the 2016 Election,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 95, No. 4, July/August 2016, p. 67.<br />
50 Richard Dobbs et al., The World at Work: Jobs, Pay and Skills for 3.5 Billion People, McKinsey<br />
Global Institute, June 2012, p. 48.
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