STRATEGIC

194 Strategic Choices for a Turbulent World: In Pursuit of Security and Opportunity
and education reforms in order to qualify for aid from the U.S.
Millennium Challenge Corporation, 16 suggesting that aid contingent
on positive policy steps—in other words, aid as a form of
smart power—can be effective.
The U.S. ability to inflict financial pain on its adversaries is substantial.
This ability is multiplied when it acts in close coordination
with the EU and other partner governments. Unilateral U.S. sanctions
are generally seen as harming Americans more than their targets.
However, the use of economic coercion as an alternative to the use of
military power is growing. Some argue that Russia has already been
adequately deterred from further aggression in Ukraine by the adoption
of tough, coordinated U.S.–EU sanctions. Others note that sanctions
always take a great deal of time to bite, during which time the
adversary may have scored large gains. Moreover, overuse of sanctions
could incentivize nations to pursue financial arrangements outside the
U.S.-led international system. The next President and Congress might
expand efforts by the Treasury to devise even smarter sanctions. 17
Russia
Assumptions
Europe is ultimately responsible for defending itself against Russia militarily,
with assistance from the United States, but Europe and the United
States must make common cause to counter Putin’s assault on international
human rights norms and the promotion of authoritarianism.
As in the earlier “restraint” posture, a global growth strategy concept
would expect the United States would join forces with NATO
and the EU to confront Moscow but expect its European partners,
16 However, it hasn’t moved the needle on political rights and civil liberties. Bradley C.
Parks and Zachary J. Rice, “Does the ‘MCC Effect’ Exist? Results from the 2012 MCA
Stakeholder Survey,” MCA Monitor, Center for Global Development, February 2013. For an
overview of the aid effectiveness issue, see Shatz, 2016, pp. 112–117.
17 Juan Zarate, “Treasury’s War: The Unleashing of a New Era of Financial Warfare,” Public
Affairs, New York, 2013.