STRATEGIC

CHAPTER FIVE
Anticipation, Deterrence, and Resilience
The best way to keep something bad from happening is to see
it ahead of time . . . and you can’t see it if you refuse to face the
possibility.
William S. Burroughs 1
The renowned physicist Nils Bohr, who developed a model to predict
the seemingly random movement of electrons, liked to observe, “Prediction
is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future.” 2 The inadequacy
of prediction is like a law of physics, a constant in human affairs. The
United States spends nearly $70 billion per year on intelligence, 3 of which
at least $20 billion is for the purpose of warning civilian and military
leaders about possible threats. 4 And yet, U.S. policymakers have been no
1 Burroughs was a 20th century writer, philosopher, and an original member of the Beat
Generation. “William S. Burroughs, Quotable Quote” goodreads.com, undated.
2 Bohr, one of the founders of modern physics, attributed this quotation to Robert Storm
Petersen (1882–1949), but its provenance is disputed. “Letters to the Editor: The Perils of
Prediction, June 2nd,” The Economist, July 15, 2007.
3 In fiscal year 2015, the administration requested $50.3 billion for the National Intelligence
Program and $16.8 billion for DoD’s Military Intelligence Program. Federation of American
Scientists, “Intelligence Budget Data,” web page, 2016; Michael O’Hanlon, U.S. Defense Strategy
and the Defense Budget, Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, November 2015, p. 4.
4 Barton Gellman and Greg Miller, “‘Black Budget’ Summary Details U.S. Spy Network’s
Successes, Failures and Objectives,” Washington Post, August 29, 2013; related documents at
“Inside the 2013 U.S. Intelligence ‘Black Budget,’” Washington Post, August 29, 2013.
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