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Leveraging U.S. Strengths, Dealing with Vulnerabilities 93<br />
countries may not be able to raise living standards as rapidly as had been<br />
hoped and thus might face continuing instability).<br />
In contrast, because of its birth and immigration rates, the American<br />
working-age population is projected to remain in the “Goldilocks”<br />
range, edging down from 4.7 percent of the world’s working-age population<br />
in 2011 to 4.3 percent in 2050. 74<br />
Demography does not destine the United States to economic<br />
decline. A 2011 RAND study concluded that “there is no reason to<br />
believe, at this point, that population aging is likely to flatten economic<br />
growth rates.” It is certainly true that the retiring Baby Boomers will<br />
strain the federal budget through increasing demands on Social Security<br />
and Medicare. However, this depends on how many choose (or are<br />
forced) to retire early, and this, in turn, will be influenced by the political<br />
choices to be made about the age of eligibility for pensions or benefits<br />
or other incentives for work. The sooner such policy decisions are<br />
made, the sooner employers and workers can begin planning to adapt.<br />
Labor productivity is another wild card. Will older workers stay on<br />
the job longer if robots are doing most of the heavy lifting? 75 Can older<br />
workers be retrained to run them? 76 Automation leading to increases<br />
in productivity and retention of highly skilled workers in some industries<br />
could boost U.S. growth, offsetting the job-killing effects of other<br />
types of automation and technological advance.<br />
Medical costs for an aging population are expected to rise. Even<br />
so, choices made by individual Americans and policymakers can affect<br />
these outcomes greatly. As Martin C. Libicki put it:<br />
74 The overall percentage of the working-age population in Muslim-majority countries is<br />
projected to rise to 28.2 percent in 2030 and 30.7 percent in 2050.<br />
75 Robotic exoskeletons—motorized suits that lend the wearer strength, stamina, or<br />
protection—are being developed for use in industry, the military, and by disabled people.<br />
For examples, see “Overview of Robotic Exoskeleton Suits for Limb Movement Assist,”<br />
Smashing Robotics, May 6, 2016.<br />
76 “If older workers are trainable, are inventive, and can absorb new technology and methods,<br />
labor productivity trends could continue along the same path as before. If they are not,<br />
economic growth may suffer.” Libicki, Shatz, and Taylor, 2011, p. 57.
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