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SOCIAL IMPACT INVESTMENT: BUILDING THE EVIDENCE BASE<br />

Report<br />

Brown and Norman<br />

(2011)<br />

Brown and Swersky<br />

(2012)<br />

Table 6.5. Some market estimates from industry reports<br />

Country Estimate \<br />

Estimate<br />

Type<br />

Approach<br />

\Region MKT potential<br />

year<br />

England £165 million Potential Survey (78 SIFIs) 2010/11<br />

England £750 million potential<br />

demand (£1bn in 2016)<br />

Potential<br />

Mixed, but essentially 2015<br />

Bottom-up (starting from<br />

sector level demand)<br />

Survey (125 investors) 2013<br />

Saltuk et al (2014) Global USD 10.6bn<br />

commitments<br />

Effective and<br />

Transactions<br />

Addis et al.(2013) AUS A$ 300m investment, Potential Top-down 2012<br />

A$2 billion AUM<br />

Harji et al. (2014) CAN >CAN$1.6bn in AUM Effective and Survey & interviews 2013<br />

Transactions<br />

Chua et al. (2011) Asia USD 44-74bn potential Potential Bottom-up (starting from 2020<br />

AUM<br />

sector level demand)<br />

La Croix (2014) FRA EUR 6.02bn Solidaritybased<br />

Effective and Member reporting 2012<br />

AUM<br />

Transactions<br />

Clark et al. (2013) Global USD 1.3bn total assets Effective Survey 2013<br />

(12 funds)<br />

Weber and Scheck GER EUR 24m market Effective Bottom up (Sum of key SII 2012<br />

(2012)<br />

volume<br />

investors)<br />

Hope Consulting USA USD 120bn (willingness Potential Survey (5,227 individuals; 2010<br />

(2011)<br />

to invest in high<br />

873 investment advisors;<br />

performing non-profits)<br />

727 foundations)<br />

Freireich and Fulton US USD 26bn community Transactions N\A 2007<br />

(2009)<br />

investing<br />

Notes: Estimate year refers to the date to which the estimate corresponds to (usually different from publication date). AUM stands for<br />

assets under management.<br />

Source: OECD, based on desk research.<br />

6.66 The pure survey approach is followed by Saltuk et al. (2014) and is described in Box 6.2. As<br />

previously discussed, the key for successfully estimating the SII market is to guarantee that the sample is<br />

representative of the target population and that selection biases are mitigated. These remain key challenges<br />

in nearly all SII surveys because the boundaries of the target population (and definition) are still blurry.<br />

6.67 A common caveat found in most industry reports relates to the strategies employed to estimate<br />

the current (or potential) market. Strong assumptions, such as constant shares (across time and geography)<br />

for the SII component of more aggregate measures can induce significant biases. Also, it is sometimes<br />

assumed a nexus\relationship between SII demand and supply that is not self-evident. For example, Chua<br />

et al. (2011) first calculate a sector-level SII demand projection assuming that 5% to 15% of total demand<br />

in each sector is satisfied through SII. Second, building on the demand estimate, the SII total invested<br />

capital is calculated through a formula based on estimated profit margins (by sector), return on equity and<br />

average cost of capital.<br />

6.68 An additional caveat found in some industry reports is an emphasis on case studies and\or a<br />

selection of very successful SII transactions, investors or social enterprises (e.g. Clark et al., 2013). In<br />

particular if such small (and biased) samples are built upon to draw conclusions on the evolution of the SII<br />

market. It should be noted however, that such reports do not claim to size the whole SII market, but rather<br />

provide a kick-start to the discussion on building the evidence base. Avoiding selection biases is crucial<br />

and to do so, it is crucial to include in the samples not only the best and the good, but also the not so well<br />

performing cases (Bloom and Clark, 2011). The right incentives need to be devised in order to ensure the<br />

survey participation of, at least a representative sample of the target population. Providing feedback on<br />

interim survey results can be a good incentive to increase survey participation (Bloom and Clark, 2011).<br />

© OECD 2015 99

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