The 1995/1996 Household Income, Expenditure - (PDF, 101 mb ...

IX.S
and later found that the information provided to the enumerator was freely
passed on to data requestors would be less likely to respond should they find
themselves in a future sample. Such an argument is so full of hypotheses and
assumptions as to seem like fiction. The data user would have to search out
and identify the household or firm on the ground (assuming some motive
which escapes the author), the respondent would have to find this out, they
would have to communicate with one another, then the supposed breach of
confidence would have to have been perceived negatively by the original
respondent, then the original respondent wbuld have to be selected in the
subsequent sample. The probability of such loss in respondent confidence
from such an unlikely sequence of events is infinitesimal.
Why is CAPMAS such a "closed-shop," so reluctant to release anything
but tabulated data? Why withhold raw data when this data would be
beneficial to society at large? I expect other researchers who have worked
within the bureaucracy for an extensive period of time could add to the
following:
1) Fear of negative publicity has built up an institutional inertia against
openness. It is quite conceivable that a number of good economists could
make a case for high unemployment, poor climate for investment, chaos in the
capital market, high poverty, etc. However, it may be just as likely that
positive reports on the state of the economy result, how Egypt is attempting
to privatize and reform, how upbeat potential investors are about growth
opportunities, the strides she has made in family planning, etc.
2) Knowledge is power. Government establishments in Egyptian society,
and policy-making circles in general, exist mainly to maintain the status quo,
not to distribute the gains from work effort.
3) Institutional rigidity. The "Public Mobilization" side of CAPMAS exists
as a relic from the state defense establishment, the theory being that a
defense establishment with full knowledge of strategic resources, potential
target areas, security perimeters, and the like, would be better capable of
protecting its citizenry. The situation seems perfectly appropriate for a
country permanently at war, but it is not a proper and efficient way to run a
statistical organization. The setup has spawned a rather unique separation
between management - mainly military careerists - and a much larger cadre of
employees with varying levels of statistical, commercial, or computer knowledge
and experience. Patronage is rife, turnover is high, consensus and learning
effects are nearly non-existent. It is hardly a wonder that distrust pervades
working relationships.
4) Genuine Concern about Validity. Empirically and methodologically, GDP,
employment and inflation are measured with error in Egypt. The first thing
CAPMAS should know, however, is that every country faces mismeasurement in
its official statistics. US GDP fails to capture much of the value of software
development services, an estimate of 1% worth; the difference between monthly
nonfarm payroll estimates and the revisions of those estimates will experience
increases during 1997 to account for annual benchmark revisions; labor
productivity has been underestimated by the us Commerce Department for
years; the overestimate of the us CPI is already established, and the longterm
revision of the index is well under way. It is not difficult to infer that
estimates are estimates everywhere. The important point is that many people
question the numbers because they have a vested interest in getting them
right. With many people involved, the mathematical likelihood that the estimate
will approach the zero bias low variance figure is higher.
Estimates often cannot be replicated due to poor historical evidence.