VGB POWERTECH 10 (2019)

VGB PowerTech 10 l 2019
Editorial
IEA World Energy Outlook 2019
A great challenge for power generation
Ladies and Gentlemen,
The “World Energy Outlook“
(WEO)* of the International
Energy Agency (IEA), which
has been published for the
first time in 1977 and is now
published annually, is one of
the most important analyses
of the global energy supply
situation and forecasts or
scenarios for future developments.
The report, the current
2019 edition comprises
810 pages and is edited by the
Directorate of Sustainability,
Technology and Outlooks of the IEA together with other departments
of the organisation. The authors also draw on input
from experts worldwide and on around 250 experts for
the review. In addition to presenting the current energy supply
situation, the report also includes energy market analyses
and forecasts, some of which form the basis for the orientation
of future energy policies.
In the current WEO, presented in November 2019, the global
development of energy supply up to the year 2040 is shown
in three scenarios: The “Current Policies Scenario” (CPS),
which continues the current developments, the “Stated Policies
Scenario” (SPC), which takes current policies into account,
and the “Sustainable Development Scenario” (SDS),
which is a path with new accents.
Following the Stated Policies Scenario as the current forecast,
global primary energy consumption will increase by
24 % between 2018 and 2040, i.e. by approx. 1 % annually.
The focus of energy consumption is shifting from Europe/
North America – from the current 33 % to 25 % – to Asia. An
increase in consumption is forecast for all “conventional” energy
sources except coal - constant consumption: Crude oil
(+9 %), natural gas (+36 %) and nuclear energy (+28 %).
Renewable energies would account for 21 % of total energy
consumption in 2040, compared with 14 % in 2018. This
would cover about half of the forecast increase in consumption,
with a total share of 21 %.
The Sustainable Development Scenario shows ways how energy
sustainability objectives can be achieved comprehensively,
in particular the aspects set out in the Paris Climate Agreement,
but also the broad access to energy for clean air. Global
energy consumption will fall by around 7 % compared with
2018, and renewable energies will record strong growth of
+210 %, reaching 33 % of total primary energy consumption.
Common to all scenarios is the outstanding role of electricity
supply. Electricity is seen as the heart of modern societies.
Electricity is the basis of communication, health care, industry,
education, prosperity and culture. In addition, electricity
plays a central role in shaping the future energy supply system:
as electricity consumption increases, the overall energy
balance is significantly improved, more sustainably and with
lower emissions, for example through efficiency gains and
savings effects in other energies.
Electricity consumption will increase from 26,607 TWh today
to 42,824 TWh (CPS), 41,373 TWh (SPC) and 38,713
TWh (SDS) worldwide. Only in the SD scenario does one
energy source, coal, record a sharp decline of around 75 %.
The growth attributed to nuclear energy is striking and lies
between +20 % and +70 %. For renewables as a whole, this
growth is even more pronounced and lies between +155 %
and +250 % up to the year 2040 ... i.e. within about two decades.
These few key figures – all the details can be found in the
810-page report – illustrate the enormous task that lies ahead
of the electricity supply and thus of all those involved in this
sector, and, of course, beyond generation. Irrespective of the
scenario chosen, it is a matter of preserving the existing - conventional
- or replacing it and creating new ones. All energy
sources will continue to be required, with different characteristics
and different volumes. In any case, wind and photovoltaics
have an outstanding importance in the growth of
renewables. In the case of wind, the capacities are to increase
3 to 4 times and in the case of photovoltaics 6 to 12 times
the current output and will be partially replaced by the year
2040.
The summary of the “World Energy Outlook” introduces with
the pessimistic words “The world of energy is marked by a
series of deep contradictions”. Let us demonstrate for technology
how contradictions can be resolved with technology
and realised into practical solutions.
Dipl.-Ing. Christopher Weßelmann
Editor in Chief, VGB PowerTech
Essen, Germany
* International Energy Agency (IEA): World Energy Outlook 2019.
ISBN PDF: 978-92-64-97300-8, ISBN Print: 978-92-64-52327-2,
Pages 810, Paris, 2019
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