Conservation and Sustainable Use of the Biosphere - WBGU

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Impact of global climate change on individual ecosystems F 4.2 233 individual ecosystems may be made even though the work is being done on the basis of as yet unreliable prognoses on the regional manifestation of terrestrial warming (Graßl, 1999). F 4.2 Impact of global climate change on individual ecosystems For political decision-making processes under the Framework Convention on Climate Change, exact findings with regard to the sensitivity of certain ecosystems and agrarian regions are relevant above all because better regional strategies for the implementation of the convention can thus be developed. Moreover, quantitative results on the ‘effects’ of climate change on ecosystems remain essential for global food security, forestry, fisheries and not least biosphere conservation. The various IPCC working groups have therefore produced detailed analyses on the impact of global climate change on forests, grasslands, deserts and mountainous regions, lakes and rives, wetlands, coasts and oceans (IPCC, 1996b). Table F 4.2-1 provides an overview of these impacts for selected ecosystems. F 4.2.1 Forests The potential consequences of global environmental changes will vary for the approx 4 thousand million hectares of forest and bush ecosystems on the Earth as a function of their different reactions to temperature and CO 2 changes (Enquete Commission, 1994; Section G 4.1). The most certain consequence which all forests have in common is the shifting of forest borders towards the poles (Kirschbaum and Fischlin, 1996; Neilson and Drapek, 1998). In the northern Table F 4.2-1 Selected studies on climatic effects upon sensitive ecosystems. Source: Markham, 1996; IPCC, 1996b Ecosystem type Key climatic variable Ecological effect Source Mangroves • relative rate of • lack of sedimentation Rose and Hurst, 1991 sea level rise Markham et al, 1993 • storm frequency and strength Coral reefs • relative rate of • bleaching Rose and Hurst, 1991 sea level rise • coral deaths Markham et al, 1993 • storm frequency and strength • surface temperature of the ocean Coastal marshes • relative rate of • change in structure of Rose and Hurst, 1991 sea level rise plant communities Markham et al, 1993 • storm frequency and strength ‘Flat’ islands • relative rate of • salinization UNEP and WMO, 1992 sea level rise • storm frequency and strength Arid and semi- • precipitation patterns • decline of frost-sensitive UNEP and WMO, 1992 arid areas • winter minimums species Tropical • cloud cover and • reduced biomass Markham et al, 1993 mountain forests sunshine duration • decline in populations Hamilton et al, 1993 • hurricane frequency and of commercial tree species strength • drought frequency High moor land • mean summer temperature • no formation of high moorland Schouten et al, 1992 • mean annual precipitation Alpine • mean annual temperature • upwards migration UNEP and WMO, 1992 mountain lands • snow fall and melting of alpine plants Markham et al, 1993 Peters and Lovejoy, 1992 Arctic • mean annual temperature • warming endangers group Chapin and Shaver, 1996 • length of seasons of Norwegian plants that Peters and Lovejoy, 1992 • precipitation require an isotherm of
234 F The biosphere in the Earth System hemisphere growth at the Northern border of the forests is expected to be so slow that the losses at the Southern border will not be offset. Thus, the level of carbon absorption by forests could reduce (Hörmann and Schmielewski, 1998). In particular, the reactions of tropical and boreal forests have been investigated in numerous research projects since publication of the comprehensive report of the German Enquete Commission on the Protection of the Earth’s Atmosphere and more detailed findings resulted (Enquete Commission, 1994). Due to market incompatibility and to a high degree of complexity no tangible global research findings have so far been achieved with regard to the climate impacts for functions that forests in general assume for humankind (timber production, conservation, water conservation, hunting, recreation) (Solomon, 1996). Tropical forest ecosystems Because of their comparatively small temperature modifications and increases in carbon dioxide content, while tropical forests will potentially demonstrate higher growth rates, limiting factors in the modified chemistry of tropical forest soils and water levels will mean a minimal real increase in their net primary production (Silver, 1998). In particular, limitation through the nutrient phosphorus must be researched further according to Silver (1998) in order to understand better the structural and functional reactions of the tropical rainforests and the changes in the global biogeochemical cycles. Further warming-related effects are expected, in particular a higher incidence of droughts as a result of the El Niño phenomenon and the associated greater frequency of fires and heavy tropical hurricanes with their significant local effects on forestry and biodiversity. Tropical forests will undergo significant changes in the composition of species as a result of changed precipitation patterns and greater aridity that may possibly lead to further extinctions in exposed ecosystems (Markham, 1998). In that context, fragmentation as a result of non-site appropriate forestry methods (clear cutting, monoculture, etc) and further direct human influences (conversion, road construction, settlements, etc) will have a negative impact on adaptability. Boreal forest ecosystems Boreal forests will be impacted harder by climate change in their structure and function than other forest types because the warming in higher latitudes will probably be greater and boreal forests react more sensitively to temperature changes in connection with increased carbon dioxide concentrations (Beerling, 1999).They will spread into regions that are currently covered by tundra if the groundwater level is not too high. At the Southern reaches of the area they currently cover the boreal forests will be pushed out by pioneer species of temperate forests and grassland because warming will probably lead to more fires and insect blights (Kirschbaum and Fischlin, 1996). The adaptive behaviour of boreal forest ecosystems in global change will be discussed and researched in particular on the background of the sink problem in the context of the Kyoto follow-up process. In that context, the long-term experiment CLIMEX in Southern Norway which has simulated under real conditions the assumptions about probable climate change scenarios and subjected a forest area to increased temperatures (+3°C in summer and +5°C in winter) and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (560ppm) over a period of nine years. Ultimately it is clear that boreal forest areas under those conditions become net carbon sinks (Beerling, 1999).This calculation only applies, however, to areas in which the boreal forest remains despite warming. A detailed presentation of the current areas covered by forest and changes in that stand can be found in Section G 4.1. F 4.2.2 Tundra ecosystems The regional form that climate change has taken thus far in the Arctic has varied depending on the location. Areas with warming tendencies in winter and spring (such as Norway, Northwest Canada, northern Russia, Western Siberia, Yakutiya) contrast with areas that are cooling distinctly (such as north-eastern Canada). Furthermore, the results of most model calculations do not yet concur with the observed climate data (Hansell et al, 1998). One thing is certain, though, the mean warming experienced thus far of the very varied, very sensitive Arctic is still within the natural realms of variability (Maxwell, 1997). Several new biome models forecast a drastic decline in tundra acreage in favour of boreal forests in the case of a doubling of CO 2 concentration (Neilson and Drapek, 1998). That would not just change the local biotope structures and water levels in peatlands completely, above all and this is the fear, it would lead to feedback effects on the global climate in the form of large-scale thawing of the permafrost soils and the release of large amounts of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane, even though there are contradictory results on this question (Siegert and Hubberten, 1998; Section F 5).The indigenous population in Arctic regions (eg Inuit, Lapps) have to expect changes in the snow and ice coverage and new erosionary processes and adapt their already jeopardized lifestyle and economic livelihoods accordingly
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World in Transition German Advisory
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Members of the German Advisory Coun
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German Advisory Council on Global C
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VI Dr Helmut Kraus (University of B
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VIII G 4 G 5 H H 1 H 2 H 3 H 4 H 5
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X D 1.3.1.3 D 1.3.1.4 D 1.3.1.5 D 1
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XII E 3.3.1.1 E 3.3.1.2 E 3.3.2 E 3
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XIV F 4.3 F 5 F 5.1 F 5.1.1 F 5.1.2
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XVI J I 2.4 I 2.5 I 2.5.1 I 2.5.2 I
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XVIII L K 2.4.12 K 2.4.13 K 2.4.14
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XX Box E 3.9-2 Box E 3.9-3 Box E 3.
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Figures Figure C 1.2-1 Figure C 1.3
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Acronyms ACFM AGDW AIA AIDS ATBI´s
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XXVI NIH NPP OECD ÖPUL PCR PEFC PI
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Summary for Policymakers A 3 Overco
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Summary for Policymakers A 5 vation
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Introduction: Humanity reconstructs
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10 B Introduction Box B-1 Biosphere
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12 B Introduction Box B-2 Sustainab
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The biosphere-centred network of in
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Trends of global change in the bios
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Impact loops in the biosphere-centr
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Impact loops as core elements of sy
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Genetic diversity and species diver
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32 D The use of genetic and species
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D 3 Focal issues D 3.1 Trade in end
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Natural and cultivated landscapes E
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From natural to cultivated landscap
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Development of landscapes under hum
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Development of the cultivated lands
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Amazonia: Revolution in a fragile e
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Amazonia: Revolution in a fragile e
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Introduction of the Nile perch into
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The Indonesian shallow sea E 2.4 10
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Perception and evaluation E 3.1 113
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Spatial and temporal separation of
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 125 E 3.
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 127 tion
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 129 Box
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 131 cons
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 133 Figu
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 135 from
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 137 Habi
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 139 1. O
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 141 vati
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 143 used
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 145 Tabl
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 153 Chan
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 155 rene
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 157 vati
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Sustainable land use E 3.3 159 comb
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Sustainable food production from aq
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Conserving natural and cultural her
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Introduction of alien species E 3.6
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Introduction of alien species E 3.6
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Page 212 and 213: Tourism as an instrument E 3.7 185
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Page 234: The biosphere in the Earth System F
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Page 243 and 244: F 2 The global climate between fore
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Page 274: Biosphere-anthroposphere linkages:
Page 277 and 278: 250 G Biosphere-anthroposphere link
Page 281 and 282: G2 The mechanism of the Overexploit
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Page 300: Valuing the biosphere: An ethical a
Page 303 and 304: 276 H Valuing the biosphere: An eth
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H 5 Economic valuation of biosphere
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286 H Valuing the biosphere: An eth
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H 6 The ethics of conducting negoti
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A guard rail strategy for biosphere
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Third biological imperative: mainta
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Fourth biological imperative: prese
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Conclusion: an explicit guard rail
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Tasks and issues I 2.1 309 • Pres
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Tasks and issues I 2.1 311 basis of
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Approaches under international law
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Approaches under international law
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Approaches for positive regulations
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Approaches for positive regulations
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Motivational approaches I 2.4 321 t
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Motivational approaches I 2.4 323 c
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Environmental education and environ
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Focuses of implementation I 3.2 335
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The role of the Biodiversity Conven
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Agreements and arrangements under t
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Incentive instruments, funds and in
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Research strategy for the biosphere
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Preserving the integrity of bioregi
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Maintaining biopotential for the fu
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Preserving the global natural herit
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Preserving the regulatory functions
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Monitoring and remote sensing J 2.3
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Biological-ecological basic researc
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Socio-economic basic research J 3.2
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The foundations of a strategy for a
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Focal areas of implementation K 2 K
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Governments and government institut
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Governments and government institut
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International institutions K 2.4 38
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A worldwide system of protected are
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References L 397 Abramovitz, J N (1
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References L 399 Berlyne, E D (1974
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References L 401 Campfire Associati
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References L 403 Promoting the Cons
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References L 405 fied Organisms. UB
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References L 407 Gollin, M A (1993)
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References L 409 Herzog-Schröder,
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References L 411 Kaufmann, L S (199
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References L 413 Leader-Williams, N
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References L 415 Sustaining Society
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References L 417 of forest recreati
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References L 419 Pott, R (1993) Far
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References L 421 pp109-140. Scharpf
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References L 423 schutz und die Wid
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References L 425 des Naturschutzes
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References L 427 Wold, C (1998) ‘
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Glossary M
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432 M Glossary the ecosystems in a
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434 M Glossary terized by its high
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The German Advisory Council on Glob
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440 N The German Advisory Council o
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Index O 443 A Aalborg Charter 194-1
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Index O 445 Especially as Waterfowl
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Index O 447 habitats 52, 81, 154, 1
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Index O 449 phytotherapy; see also
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Index O 451 United Nations Conferen
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