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Conservation and Sustainable Use of the Biosphere - WBGU

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22 C The biosphere-centred network <strong>of</strong> interrelations<br />

HYDROSPHERE ATMOSPHERE PEDOSPHERE<br />

Sea-level rise<br />

Changes in loads <strong>of</strong> particulate<br />

<strong>and</strong> dissolved matter<br />

Stratospheric ozone<br />

depletion<br />

Loss <strong>of</strong> fertility<br />

(organic matter, nutrients)<br />

Salinization,<br />

alkalization<br />

Changes in ice-caps<br />

<strong>and</strong> glaciers<br />

Changes in<br />

oceanic circulation<br />

Freshwater scarcity<br />

Changes in water quality<br />

(pathogens, nutrients, toxins)<br />

Changes in local<br />

water balance<br />

Changes in<br />

groundwater level<br />

Increasing local<br />

air pollution<br />

Enhanced<br />

greenhouse effect<br />

Tropospheric<br />

pollution<br />

Global <strong>and</strong> regional<br />

climate change<br />

Increasing<br />

trace gases<br />

Erosion,<br />

morphologial changes<br />

Surface sealing<br />

Compaction<br />

Overfertilization<br />

Acidification,<br />

contamination<br />

Increasing deposition <strong>and</strong><br />

accumulation <strong>of</strong> waste<br />

POPULATION<br />

Rural exodus<br />

Urbanization<br />

Increasing damage<br />

to health<br />

Growing environmental<br />

awareness<br />

Increased<br />

mobility<br />

Growing interest in<br />

participation<br />

Sensitization to<br />

global problems<br />

Population growth<br />

International<br />

migration<br />

Urban sprawl<br />

PSYCHOSOCIAL SPHERE<br />

Dem<strong>and</strong> for<br />

higher st<strong>and</strong>ards<br />

Women’s emancipation<br />

Growth <strong>of</strong> fundamentalist<br />

movements<br />

Spreading <strong>of</strong> western lifestyle<br />

<strong>and</strong> consumption patterns<br />

Increase <strong>of</strong> anthropogenic<br />

introductions <strong>of</strong> species<br />

Substance overload <strong>of</strong><br />

natural ecosystems<br />

Widening international social<br />

<strong>and</strong> economic disparities<br />

Individualization<br />

Fragmentation <strong>of</strong><br />

natural ecosystems<br />

Damage <strong>of</strong> ecosystem<br />

structure <strong>and</strong> function<br />

Mounting poverty<br />

Institutionalization<br />

<strong>of</strong> social services<br />

Loss <strong>of</strong><br />

biospheric sinks<br />

Widening national social<br />

<strong>and</strong> economic disparities<br />

Decline <strong>of</strong> traditional<br />

social structures<br />

BIOSPHERE<br />

SOCIAL ORGANIZATION<br />

Reinforcement <strong>of</strong><br />

biospheric sources<br />

Resistance formation<br />

Overexploitation <strong>of</strong><br />

biological resources<br />

Conversion <strong>of</strong><br />

natural ecosystems<br />

Genetic <strong>and</strong><br />

Species loss<br />

Increasing<br />

regional conflicts<br />

Increasing significance<br />

<strong>of</strong> NGO’s<br />

Democratization<br />

Increasing international<br />

agreements <strong>and</strong> institutions<br />

Increasing environmental<br />

protection at national level<br />

Structural unemployment<br />

on <strong>the</strong> rise<br />

Increased<br />

food production<br />

Expansion <strong>of</strong> agriculturally<br />

used l<strong>and</strong>s<br />

Intensification <strong>of</strong><br />

agriculture<br />

Decline <strong>of</strong> traditional<br />

agriculture<br />

Exp<strong>and</strong>ing<br />

monetary sector<br />

Increased<br />

tourism<br />

Growing importance <strong>of</strong> national<br />

economic policy strategies<br />

Knowledge <strong>and</strong><br />

technology transfer<br />

Progress in<br />

information technology<br />

Advances in environmental<br />

engineering<br />

Tertiarization<br />

Increase <strong>of</strong> environmentally<br />

sound economic processes<br />

Development <strong>of</strong> renewable<br />

energies <strong>and</strong> resources<br />

Increased consumption <strong>of</strong><br />

energy <strong>and</strong> resources<br />

Enhanced labour<br />

productivity<br />

Enhanced resource<br />

productivity<br />

Increasing<br />

protectionism<br />

Expansion <strong>of</strong><br />

traffic routes<br />

Intensification <strong>of</strong> education<br />

<strong>and</strong> capacity building<br />

Medical<br />

progress<br />

Globalization<br />

<strong>of</strong> markets<br />

Construction <strong>of</strong><br />

technical megaprojects<br />

ECONOMY<br />

Enhanced<br />

capital intensity<br />

International<br />

indebtedness<br />

Industrialization<br />

Increasing<br />

world trade<br />

Growing<br />

traffic volume<br />

Mounting<br />

technological risks<br />

Automation,<br />

mechanization<br />

Progress in biotechnology<br />

<strong>and</strong> genetic engineering<br />

Development <strong>of</strong> new materials,<br />

material substitution<br />

SCIENCE / TECHNOLOGY<br />

Impact loop ‘Destruction <strong>of</strong> natural ecosystems’: = amplifying effect = attenuating effect<br />

Impact loop ‘Damage to ecosystem services’: = amplifying effect = attenuating effect<br />

Impact loop ‘Introduction <strong>of</strong> alien species’: = amplifying effect = attenuating effect<br />

Figure C 1.3-2<br />

Network <strong>of</strong> interrelations for ecosystems <strong>and</strong> l<strong>and</strong>scapes.<br />

Source: <strong>WBGU</strong>

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