Superconducting Technology Assessment - nitrd

TERMS OF REFERENCE
Date: 10 September 2004
Terms of Reference: OCA Superconducting Technology Assessment
Task
With the approval of the Director, NSA, the Office of Corporate Assessments (OCA) will conduct an assessment of
superconducting technology as a significant follow-on to silicon for component use in high-performance computing
(HEC) systems available after 2010. The assessment will:
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Examine current projections of:
– material science.
– device technology.
– circuit design.
– manufacturability.
– general commercial availability of superconducting technology
over the balance of the decade.
Identify programs in place or needed to advance commercialization of superconducting
technology if warranted by technology projections.
Identify strategic partnerships essential to the foregoing.
First-order estimates of the cost and complexity of government intervention in technology evolution will be needed.
The assessment will not directly investigate potential HEC architectures or related non-superconducting
technologies required by high-end computers other than those elements essential to the superconducting
technology projections.
Background
Complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) devices underpin all modern HEC systems. Moore’s Law
(doubling of transistor count every 18 months) has resulted in steady increases in microprocessor performance.
However, silicon has a finite life as devices shrink in feature size. At 90 nanometers, there are increasing difficulties
experienced in material science, and clock and power features in commodity microprocessors, and already signs
are appearing that the major commodity device industry is turning in other directions. Most companies are planning
on fielding lower power devices with multiple cores on a die (with increased performance coming from device
parallelism vice clock/power increases). It appears doubtful that commodity microprocessors will shrink much
beyond the 65 nanometer point. While the Silicon Industry Association (SIA) roadmap projects silicon usage well
into the next decade, it will almost certainly come from increased parallelism, not speed. Looking ahead, the SIA
projects superconducting Rapid Single Flux Quantum (RSFQ) technologies as a promising replacement for systems
requiring substantial increases in processor speeds.
Specific Tasks
■ Assess the current state of superconducting technologies as they apply to microprocessors,
hybrid memory-processor devices, routers, crossbars, memories and other components
used in general purpose HEC architectures and other high speed telecommunications or
processing applications.
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Where possible, identify and validate the basis for SIA projections in current superconducting
technology roadmaps. Seek expert opinion where necessary.
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