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kasetsart journal natural science

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254<br />

Inflow (mcm.)<br />

Inflow (mcm.)<br />

Inflow (mcm.)<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

R2 10<br />

8<br />

Testing<br />

6<br />

4<br />

R 2<br />

= 0.45<br />

0<br />

0 2 4 6 8 10<br />

Actual<br />

2 Weekly Model Training<br />

Actual<br />

Predicted<br />

= 0.88<br />

B:11-6-6-6-1<br />

Predicted<br />

Apr-95<br />

Jul-95<br />

Nov-95<br />

Mar-96<br />

Jun-96<br />

Oct-96<br />

Feb-97<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

Predicted<br />

R2 50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

= 0.74 Testing<br />

0 10 20 30 40<br />

Actual<br />

50<br />

May-97<br />

Sep-97<br />

Jan-98<br />

Apr-98<br />

Aug-98<br />

Dec-98<br />

Weekly Model<br />

Training<br />

R2 Actual<br />

Predicted<br />

= 0.89<br />

A:15-10-10-10-1<br />

Jul-92<br />

Nov-92<br />

Apr-93<br />

Aug-93<br />

Jan-94<br />

Jun-94<br />

Oct-94<br />

Mar-95<br />

Jul-95<br />

Dec-95<br />

May-96<br />

Sep-96<br />

Feb-97<br />

Jun-97<br />

Nov-97<br />

Apr-98<br />

Aug-98<br />

0<br />

Kasetsart J. (Nat. Sci.) 40(1)<br />

Inflow (mcm.)<br />

Inflow (mcm.)<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

120<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

Jan-99<br />

Weekly Model Training 15<br />

10<br />

R<br />

5<br />

0<br />

2 Actual<br />

Predicted<br />

= 0.73<br />

B:10-8-8-1<br />

Predicted<br />

Mar-99<br />

May-99<br />

Aug-99<br />

Oct-99<br />

Predicted<br />

Dec-99<br />

Feb-00<br />

R2 50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

= 0.59 Testing<br />

0 10 20 30 40 50<br />

Actual<br />

Testing<br />

R 2 = 0.74<br />

0 5 10 15<br />

Actual<br />

(a) ANNs training and testing [MB_B] (b) ANNs training and testing [LC_B]<br />

May-00<br />

Jul-00<br />

Sep-00<br />

Dec-00<br />

Feb-01<br />

R2 Weekly Model<br />

Training<br />

Actual<br />

Predicted<br />

= 0.96<br />

A:10-14-14-1<br />

Jul-87<br />

Apr-88<br />

Jan-89<br />

Oct-89<br />

Jul-90<br />

May-91<br />

Feb-92<br />

Nov-92<br />

Aug-93<br />

May-94<br />

Mar-95<br />

Dec-95<br />

Sep-96<br />

Jun-97<br />

Mar-98<br />

(c) ANNs training and testing [LP_A] (d) ANNs training and testing [LK_A]<br />

Figure 3 Comparison of the actual and predicted inflow of selected ANNs weekly models.<br />

Inflow (mcm.)<br />

140<br />

120<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

Monthly Model Training<br />

Actual<br />

predicted<br />

R 2 = 0.95<br />

B:11-4-4-4-1<br />

Predicted<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

Testing<br />

R 2 = 0.50<br />

0 20 40 60<br />

Actual<br />

Apr-95<br />

Jul-95<br />

Oct-95<br />

Jan-96<br />

Apr-96<br />

Jul-96<br />

Oct-96<br />

Jan-97<br />

Apr-97<br />

Jul-97<br />

Oct-97<br />

Jan-98<br />

Apr-98<br />

Jul-98<br />

Oct-98<br />

0<br />

Predicted<br />

90<br />

60<br />

30<br />

Jul-92<br />

Jan-93<br />

0<br />

Testing<br />

R 2 = 0.82<br />

03 0 60 90<br />

Actual<br />

Jul-93<br />

Jan-94<br />

Jul-94<br />

Jan-95<br />

Jul-95<br />

Monthly Model Training<br />

R2 Actual<br />

Predicted<br />

= 0.93<br />

A:15-5-5-5-1<br />

Jan-96<br />

Jul-96<br />

Jan-97<br />

Jul-97<br />

Jan-98<br />

Jul-98<br />

Inflow (mcm.)<br />

140<br />

120<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

Jan-99<br />

Predicted<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

Mar-99<br />

Te sting<br />

R 2 = 0.79<br />

0 20 40 60 80<br />

Actual<br />

May-99<br />

Jul-99<br />

Sep-99<br />

Nov-99<br />

Jan-00<br />

Monthly Model Training<br />

R2 Actual<br />

Predicted<br />

= 0.90<br />

B:10-3-3-3-1<br />

Mar-00<br />

May-00<br />

Jul-00<br />

(a) ANNs training and testing [MB_B] (b) ANNs training and testing [LC_B]<br />

300<br />

250<br />

200<br />

150<br />

100<br />

50<br />

0<br />

Jul-87<br />

Monthly Model Training<br />

R2 Actual<br />

Predicted<br />

= 0.97<br />

B:8-5-5-5-1<br />

Aug-88<br />

Sep-89<br />

Oct-90<br />

Nov-91<br />

Dec-92<br />

Predicted<br />

Jan-94<br />

120<br />

80<br />

40<br />

0<br />

Feb-95<br />

Sep-00<br />

Testing<br />

(c) ANNs training and testing [LP_A] (d) ANNs training and testing [LK_B]<br />

Figure 4 Comparison of the actual and predicted inflow of selected ANNs monthly models.<br />

Inflow (mcm.)<br />

Nov-00<br />

Jan-01<br />

R 2 = 0.80<br />

0 40 80 120<br />

Actual<br />

Mar-96<br />

Apr-97<br />

May-98

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