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254<br />
Inflow (mcm.)<br />
Inflow (mcm.)<br />
Inflow (mcm.)<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
R2 10<br />
8<br />
Testing<br />
6<br />
4<br />
R 2<br />
= 0.45<br />
0<br />
0 2 4 6 8 10<br />
Actual<br />
2 Weekly Model Training<br />
Actual<br />
Predicted<br />
= 0.88<br />
B:11-6-6-6-1<br />
Predicted<br />
Apr-95<br />
Jul-95<br />
Nov-95<br />
Mar-96<br />
Jun-96<br />
Oct-96<br />
Feb-97<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
Predicted<br />
R2 50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
= 0.74 Testing<br />
0 10 20 30 40<br />
Actual<br />
50<br />
May-97<br />
Sep-97<br />
Jan-98<br />
Apr-98<br />
Aug-98<br />
Dec-98<br />
Weekly Model<br />
Training<br />
R2 Actual<br />
Predicted<br />
= 0.89<br />
A:15-10-10-10-1<br />
Jul-92<br />
Nov-92<br />
Apr-93<br />
Aug-93<br />
Jan-94<br />
Jun-94<br />
Oct-94<br />
Mar-95<br />
Jul-95<br />
Dec-95<br />
May-96<br />
Sep-96<br />
Feb-97<br />
Jun-97<br />
Nov-97<br />
Apr-98<br />
Aug-98<br />
0<br />
Kasetsart J. (Nat. Sci.) 40(1)<br />
Inflow (mcm.)<br />
Inflow (mcm.)<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
Jan-99<br />
Weekly Model Training 15<br />
10<br />
R<br />
5<br />
0<br />
2 Actual<br />
Predicted<br />
= 0.73<br />
B:10-8-8-1<br />
Predicted<br />
Mar-99<br />
May-99<br />
Aug-99<br />
Oct-99<br />
Predicted<br />
Dec-99<br />
Feb-00<br />
R2 50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
= 0.59 Testing<br />
0 10 20 30 40 50<br />
Actual<br />
Testing<br />
R 2 = 0.74<br />
0 5 10 15<br />
Actual<br />
(a) ANNs training and testing [MB_B] (b) ANNs training and testing [LC_B]<br />
May-00<br />
Jul-00<br />
Sep-00<br />
Dec-00<br />
Feb-01<br />
R2 Weekly Model<br />
Training<br />
Actual<br />
Predicted<br />
= 0.96<br />
A:10-14-14-1<br />
Jul-87<br />
Apr-88<br />
Jan-89<br />
Oct-89<br />
Jul-90<br />
May-91<br />
Feb-92<br />
Nov-92<br />
Aug-93<br />
May-94<br />
Mar-95<br />
Dec-95<br />
Sep-96<br />
Jun-97<br />
Mar-98<br />
(c) ANNs training and testing [LP_A] (d) ANNs training and testing [LK_A]<br />
Figure 3 Comparison of the actual and predicted inflow of selected ANNs weekly models.<br />
Inflow (mcm.)<br />
140<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
Monthly Model Training<br />
Actual<br />
predicted<br />
R 2 = 0.95<br />
B:11-4-4-4-1<br />
Predicted<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
Testing<br />
R 2 = 0.50<br />
0 20 40 60<br />
Actual<br />
Apr-95<br />
Jul-95<br />
Oct-95<br />
Jan-96<br />
Apr-96<br />
Jul-96<br />
Oct-96<br />
Jan-97<br />
Apr-97<br />
Jul-97<br />
Oct-97<br />
Jan-98<br />
Apr-98<br />
Jul-98<br />
Oct-98<br />
0<br />
Predicted<br />
90<br />
60<br />
30<br />
Jul-92<br />
Jan-93<br />
0<br />
Testing<br />
R 2 = 0.82<br />
03 0 60 90<br />
Actual<br />
Jul-93<br />
Jan-94<br />
Jul-94<br />
Jan-95<br />
Jul-95<br />
Monthly Model Training<br />
R2 Actual<br />
Predicted<br />
= 0.93<br />
A:15-5-5-5-1<br />
Jan-96<br />
Jul-96<br />
Jan-97<br />
Jul-97<br />
Jan-98<br />
Jul-98<br />
Inflow (mcm.)<br />
140<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
Jan-99<br />
Predicted<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
Mar-99<br />
Te sting<br />
R 2 = 0.79<br />
0 20 40 60 80<br />
Actual<br />
May-99<br />
Jul-99<br />
Sep-99<br />
Nov-99<br />
Jan-00<br />
Monthly Model Training<br />
R2 Actual<br />
Predicted<br />
= 0.90<br />
B:10-3-3-3-1<br />
Mar-00<br />
May-00<br />
Jul-00<br />
(a) ANNs training and testing [MB_B] (b) ANNs training and testing [LC_B]<br />
300<br />
250<br />
200<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
Jul-87<br />
Monthly Model Training<br />
R2 Actual<br />
Predicted<br />
= 0.97<br />
B:8-5-5-5-1<br />
Aug-88<br />
Sep-89<br />
Oct-90<br />
Nov-91<br />
Dec-92<br />
Predicted<br />
Jan-94<br />
120<br />
80<br />
40<br />
0<br />
Feb-95<br />
Sep-00<br />
Testing<br />
(c) ANNs training and testing [LP_A] (d) ANNs training and testing [LK_B]<br />
Figure 4 Comparison of the actual and predicted inflow of selected ANNs monthly models.<br />
Inflow (mcm.)<br />
Nov-00<br />
Jan-01<br />
R 2 = 0.80<br />
0 40 80 120<br />
Actual<br />
Mar-96<br />
Apr-97<br />
May-98