VGB POWERTECH 7 (2020) - International Journal for Generation and Storage of Electricity and Heat

VGB PowerTech 7 l 2020
Editorial
Power supply in times of Corona and COVID-19
Dear Reader,
the worldwide spread of the Corona
virus and the direct and indirect
consequences and effects
associated with it have been affecting
our lives since the spring
of this year. The pandemic and
Covid 19 diseases have triggered
a global health and economic
crisis unprecedented
for our modern society. The
coronavirus, first noticed in the
early days of this year in Wuhan,
China, with a local outbreak, according
to current knowledge,
determines private, social, economic
and political life.
What we personally perceive as at best restrictions on our freedom
of movement hits sick people hard. Economic life has also
changed. Countries around the world are reporting declines in
economic output and thus slumps in gross national product of a
magnitude that clearly point to an economic recession and are
more serious than the declines in the course of the financial and
economic crisis of 2008/2009. In OECD countries, declines of up
to 13 % are reported for the first half of 2020 and a decline of
around 5.6 % is expected for the global economy for the whole of
2020, provided that there are no repeated restrictions on public
and economic life in the second half of 2020 due to a renewed
pandemic spread.
However, the Corona crisis also highlights once again the central
importance of the energy sector and, above all, a reliable and
secure supply of electricity, especially in such times. An uninterrupted
power supply is already in normal times of elementary
importance for modern societies and any interruption can have
consequences, technically for example with failed and possibly
disturbed or damaged installations, privately through bottlenecks
in the infrastructure starting with heating, cooling and evening
lighting. In times of the Corona crisis with its restrictions of our
movement space to minimize the risks of proliferation, digital
communication on private and professional level plays a decisive
role and therefore especially the power supply. Personal presence
contact is no longer possible and counts or is sought after, rather,
the familiar communication channels of telephone or e-mail are
being joined above all by the wide range of offers from video conferencing
tools to, in the meantime, “virtual conferences or trade
fairs”. The technical basis for all these tools is ultimately a stable,
uninterruptible power supply.
365/24/3600 could be the slogan for our industry. The energy
suppliers have already made provision for this in advance, independently
of Corona. With foresight and suitable advance planning,
the power supply could be secured in the current crisis. Particular
attention is being paid to the employees, as they are the
ones who have to be protected against infections, but also have to
operate or maintain the systems on site. The measures for this are
manifold. Wherever possible, they range from minimizing the risk
of infection through home office concepts, for example, to valid security
concepts for plant locations and the possible self-sufficient
operation of plants.
The previous Corona pandemic and its consequences have also
had a significant impact on energy demand. This is clearly reflected
in the global oil prices. After the previous price peak in
2011/2012 at just under 120 US$/barrel (comparable grade the
US-American WTI (West Texas Intermediate)), the price of oil has
fallen in some cases and risen somewhat in the meantime in the
following 10 years and stood at around 52 US$/barrel at the beginning
of this year. With the corona crisis, the price slumped to 13
US$/barrel, even reaching negative levels on the futures spot market.
It currently stands at around 40 US$/barrel and is stabilizing
at this level. Global crude oil demand is also showing significant
changes. The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes a decline
of around 9 % from around 100 by around 8.1 million barrels per
day to currently 91.9 million barrels per day during the period of
the sharp lockdown.
The effects on electricity demand were and are very clear. With
the respective restrictive measures in the individual states and regions,
it fell immediately and significantly.
In China, the source of the corona crisis, electricity demand in the
first months of 2020 fell by 13 % year-on-year. However, it should
be noted that the winter of 2018/2019 was significantly cooler
than the current winter, resulting in a temperature-adjusted decline
of 10 %. With the easing of public and economic restrictions,
as well as a warm spring and early summer with increasing demand
for air conditioning, electricity requirements returned to the
previous year’s level and were already 1% higher in June 2020
than in the same month in the previous year.
In India and the UK, two countries with particularly severe corona
restrictions, electricity demand in March/April actually fell by almost
30 % and also rose with the easing of restrictions, although
in June it was still around 5 % below the previous year’s level. The
latter also applies to Germany, with the IEA reporting a drop in
electricity demand of around 14 % in April.
Although forecasts are vague due to the existing uncertainties and
possible renewed restrictions on private and public life, the IEA
expects global electricity consumption to fall by up to 5 % overall
in 2020 due to the development in consumption in the first half of
the year. In the further perspective, the IEA expects the increase in
demand to continue in the range of 1 to 3 %.
The changes in the generation structure in the first half of the year
are remarkable. In all major consumption regions, the generation
structure has developed in the direction of renewable energies.
This is due to the lower overall electricity demand outlined above
as a result of the lockdown measures, coupled with low ongoing
operating costs for renewables and their partly prioritized regulatory
feed-in.
For 2020 as a whole, the IEA expects only a gradual return to the
previous economic development and the associated energy demand
according to a scenario with the months-long restrictions on
mobility and private and economic activities. This scenario shows
a decline of 6% for total energy demand, i.e. the highest decline
in the past 70 years. The impact of the Corona crisis on energy
demand would thus be around seven times greater than that of
the 2008 financial crisis. The IEA also considers all energy sources
to be affected.
Irrespective of these perspectives, the energy sector will continue
to meet its special responsibility for secure and reliable energy
supplies, since, as outlined above, it has a particularly central role
to play in overcoming the current crisis situation.
Dipl.-Ing. Christopher Weßelmann
Editor in Chief, VGB POWERTECH
Essen, Germany
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