Growing Together: Economic Integration for an Inclusive and - escap

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CHAPTER FIVE 119 Economic cooperation for addressing shared vulnerabilities and risks BOX V.1. Climate change and disasters Disasters are often caused by extreme weather events, such as heavy downpours, heat waves and droughts, which have increased in frequency, intensity and duration in recent decades. The year 2010, for instance, tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record globally, with 19 countries setting national high-temperature records and the Russian Federation losing one third of its wheat crop. That year also recorded the highest global precipitation since 1900, which led to devastating floods. For instance six million people were displaced in Pakistan as a result of record floods that year. On average, such extreme weather events, when aggregated over decades, show an increasing trend. Over the past 50 years, global rainfall has increased by 7 per cent, and the occurrence of record high temperatures has become much more common than that of record low temperatures. Although individual weather events cannot be attributed to climate change, it is possible to attribute changes in the risk of certain categories of extreme weather to climate change. Risks are represented by probability distributions, which describe what we should expect on average over a long period of time. A good understanding of such risks is crucial to properly assess the vulnerability of people and assets to extreme weather events and to implement policies to reduce their impact. The recent Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) argues that global warming increases the risk of four categories of extreme weather events – extreme heat, heavy downpours, drought and drought-associated wildfires. For such events, the historical evidence is consistent with both the science and simulations of the impacts of higher green house gas concentrations. The relationship between global warming and other extreme weather phenomena is weaker, as in the case of hurricanes, or nonexistent, as in the case of tornadoes. Despite the progress made in understanding the relationship between climate change and extreme weather events, much more work is needed to refine risks assessments in the Asia-Pacific region. For that purpose, it will be necessary to improve substantially the collection of data, especially at the local and regional levels. With improved data and quantitative models with high resolution, it would be possible in future to prepare more precise analyses of the impacts of climate change at the national and subnational levels, which, in turn, would enable policymakers to improve their planning for disaster mitigation and assist farmers, for example, to plant crops that would be more suitable for weather conditions in the future. Sources: Huber and Gulledge (2011); IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, Fact Sheet. Available from http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/images/uploads/IPCC_SREX_fact_sheet. pdf.
FIGURE TITLE V.1. Fiji, annual fluctuations in GDP relative to the incidence of disasters, 1980-2008 Annual GDP growth rate (per cent) 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Storm Storm and drought Storms -8 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: ESCAP based on data from www.databank.worldbank.org and International Disaster database, www.emdat.be. human losses. For example, the costs to aviation of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines exceeded $10 billion. In addition, this eruption led to a significant drop in temperatures worldwide of close to four degrees for about a year. The Asia-Pacific region has many active volcanoes in countries such as Japan, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, the Russian Federation and Vanuatu. Although, during the past 20 years, volcanoes have caused smaller losses than earthquakes or floods, they can have enormous destructive power. Volcanoes can also affect food security in the light of their potential to halt agricultural activities, as was the case with the Mount Tambora eruption of 1815 in Indonesia and the El Chichon, Mexico eruption in 1982. The socioeconomic impacts of disasters can be further amplified as a result of growing economic interdependence. For instance, the 2011 floods in Thailand affected 3.1 million people and cut the country’s rate of growth of the GDP to 0.1 per cent from an earlier projection of 3.2 per cent, 27 but the impact spread far beyond Thailand. The floods inundated factories, major highways, and rural roads, disrupting global production for a number of goods. Thailand has the world’s twelfth largest automobile industry, which is highly integrated into the global supply chain. Factory closures were felt as far as Drought Flood Storm Storm Floods North America, as missing parts forced major manufacturers to curtail operations. Thailand also produces about one-quarter of the world’s hard-disk drives. Factories belonging to one of the world’s largest manufacturers, which produces more than 60 per cent of its output in Thailand, were submerged, severely affecting global computer supplies. Similarly, the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan caused economic damages and losses of $210 billion in this country, but it also affected severely the Tohoku region, which produces $322 billion worth of intermediate goods and services that feed into global supply chains. Disaster risk reduction Storm Disasters are no longer perceived simply as extreme events created entirely by natural forces but rather as manifestations of unresolved problems of development. Policies have evolved from largely top-down relief and response efforts to intersectoral approaches of risk reduction with greater emphasis on early warning and mitigation. Even so, local, national and international resources are still predominantly used for emergency response. Most countries in the region have established national policies, legislation, frameworks, strategies, or plans to prepare for and cope 120
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ii Photo by Warren Field
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iv Growing Together articulates a n
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vi The following experts prepared t
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viii CONTENTS (continued) Page Chap
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x FIGURES I.1. Real rates of growth
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xii TABLES I.1. Transitions from mi
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xiv ABBREVIATIONS (continued) CEPA
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xvi ABBREVIATIONS (continued) RCM R
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xviii The term “Pacific” in thi
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xx opportunities for all social gro
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xxii Many of the labour flows withi
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xxiv development gaps. Land routes
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xxvi development agencies and priva
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xxviii weighted mean Gini coefficie
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CHAPTER ONE 1 UNDP Photo The case f
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CHAPTER ONE 3 FIGURE TITLE The case
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CHAPTER ONE 5 The case for regional
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CHAPTER ONE 11 The case for regiona
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CHAPTER TWO 19 Towards a broader in
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CHAPTER TWO 21 FIGURE TITLE Towards
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CHAPTER THREE UN Photo - Kibae Park
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CHAPTER THREE 63 Building seamless
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Page 170 and 171: 139 Annex Technical notes Photo by
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Page 176 and 177: References 145 Photo by Warren Fiel
Page 178 and 179: References 147 __________ (2009). E
Page 180 and 181: References 149 Brenner, Cath (2009)
Page 182 and 183: References 151 __________ (2010b).
Page 184 and 185: References 153 Hertel, T., ed. (199
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Page 188 and 189: References 157 Quah, Danny (2010).
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