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Growing Together: Economic Integration for an Inclusive and - escap

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from the Global Trade Analysis project (see<br />

<strong>an</strong>nex <strong>for</strong> details). For assessing the potential<br />

welfare impacts from the APEA proposal, two<br />

scenarios are considered: “Scenario A”, which<br />

covers full trade liberalization within each<br />

bloc; <strong>an</strong>d ”Scenario B” which adds full trade<br />

liberalization between each bloc. In both<br />

cases, the simulations consider the long-run<br />

effects of a full removal of tariffs on trade<br />

in goods <strong>an</strong>d the implementation of trade<br />

facilitation measures. The two scenarios are<br />

schematically represented in figure II.11.<br />

The results are shown in figure II.12. They<br />

suggest that full trade liberalization under<br />

each of the four agreements would be<br />

beneficial but that the gains would be<br />

signific<strong>an</strong>tly greater under the scenario of full<br />

trade liberalization within <strong>an</strong>d between the<br />

blocs: more th<strong>an</strong> tripled <strong>for</strong> SAFTA, more th<strong>an</strong><br />

doubled <strong>for</strong> PACER-Plus, more th<strong>an</strong> 50 per<br />

cent <strong>for</strong> AFTA <strong>an</strong>d 36 per cent <strong>for</strong> ECOTA.<br />

While these results are encouraging,<br />

implementation of this approach may,<br />

FIGURE TITLE<br />

II.11. Scenarios A <strong>an</strong>d B <strong>for</strong> trade liberalization in AFTA, SAFTA, ECOTA <strong>an</strong>d PACER-Plus<br />

Source: ESCAP.<br />

however, be complicated by the fact that the<br />

four subregional groupings are at different<br />

stages of their evolution with the most<br />

adv<strong>an</strong>ced of them, AFTA, targeting to evolve<br />

into the ASEAN <strong>Economic</strong> Community by<br />

2015 <strong>an</strong>d PACER-Plus still under negotiation.<br />

Furthermore, a major limitation of this<br />

approach is that some of the region’s largest<br />

markets, such as China, Jap<strong>an</strong> <strong>an</strong>d Republic<br />

of Korea, would remain excluded, which<br />

reduces the potential gains of this integration<br />

initiative signific<strong>an</strong>tly. In <strong>an</strong>y event, there is<br />

a tremendous potential of mutual learning<br />

across the subregional groupings of the<br />

region <strong>an</strong>d sharing their best practices. Hence,<br />

a consultative committee of subregional<br />

groupings should be constituted to facilitate<br />

that mutual learning.<br />

Building on ASEAN+ approach: The ASEAN<br />

dialogue process has contributed towards a<br />

discussion of broader regional arr<strong>an</strong>gements.<br />

Two proposals are being discussed in the<br />

ASEAN framework include <strong>an</strong> East Asia<br />

Free Trade Area (EAFTA) among ASEAN+3<br />

52

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