Twenty-eighth Report Adapting Institutions to Climate Change Cm ...

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Chapter 2 2.23 BOX 2C UNCERTAINTIES IN GLOBAL MODELS AND INPUT DATA Large-scale projections of future climate utilise GCMs to describe the physical circulation of the coupled atmosphere/ocean/land system. Although there are some uncertainties in the dynamic processes driving GCMs, they are by no means the only sources of uncertainty in such models, some of which are outlined below: Future changes in cloudiness and rainfall are subject to considerable uncertainties in current models, the physics of clouds being arguably the most uncertain of the atmospheric processes. Because clouds are important controls on albedo (reflectivity), this introduces significant uncertainty in climate models. Predicting how rainfall, snow, etc., may change is also difficult. Modelling future ocean circulation changes is less certain than for atmospheric circulation. For example, models show considerable differences in predicted changes in the circulation of the North Atlantic, which presents considerable problems in predicting the effect of such changes on the climate of Western Europe. Ice and snow cover are changing significantly (e.g. the extent of Arctic sea ice). Modelling future changes is difficult but of great importance since altered ice/snow cover has profound implications for albedo, because their reflectivity is considerably more than that of sea or land without such cover. In addition, predicting melting of grounded ice has large implications for estimating future sea level rise, as well as for ocean circulation, due to increased amounts of fresh (less dense) water entering the oceans. Climate models at the outset have to specify the amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and particles expected in the future. This depends in part on the emission scenario adopted but also on the strength of any changes in sinks or sources of gases and particles arising from natural or human-induced processes. Most of these uncertainties are either hard to predict (e.g. future man-made emissions) or poorly understood (e.g. how land and ocean sinks of GHGs will change). In addition, many of them are highly interactive with both positive (destabilising) and negative (stabilising) effects operating simultaneously. Confidence in regional projections is generally lower than in global averages, as regional changes are dependent on particular changes in atmospheric circulation that are largely averaged out at global scales. The models consequently seem to be more realistic in some regions than others. Much depends on local climate processes, particularly the strength of links between ocean temperatures and atmospheric processes. Although climate models are highly sophisticated, and the best tools presently available, some of the many uncertainties outlined above will be irreducible and indicate that the projections have to be applied with care. v Table 2.1 summarises a range of outcomes for the projected climate of different parts of the UK. They include the central estimate of change (i.e. there is an equal chance that outcomes could be greater or less than the central tendency – the so-called 50% probability level). And they show, as outer bounds, levels very likely to be exceeded nine out of ten times (the 10% or lower probability v A more detailed description of the uncertainties in climate projections can be found in Chapter 2 of the UKCP09 Projections Science report at: http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/824/517/. Accessed 20 January 2010. 12
level) and those which are only likely to be exceeded one out of ten times (the 90% or upper probability level). The estimates are projections for the 2080s with a medium emission scenario (see Box 2B). vi TABLE 2.1 Examples of projected seasonal and annual changes in weather variables for different regions of the UK 27 Weather variable Projected change in weather variable Central estimates for different regions of the UK (50% probability level) Temperature All areas in the UK may warm by the 2080s Mean temperature Summer warming more than winter Greatest change: Greatest summer mean temperature 4.2°C changes in southern England Smallest change: Smallest changes in Scottish islands 2.5°C Mean daily minimum temperature Warmest summer day Annual precipitation Mean daily minimum temperature expected to increase Greatest summer increase to occur in southern Britain Smallest summer increase to occur in northern Scotland Projections dependent on location No clear geographical pattern has emerged Central estimates show little change for UK No clear pattern has emerged Winter precipitation Greatest increase expected along western side of UK Parts of Scottish Highlands may see a decrease Summer precipitation Parts of the far south of England may undergo a decrease Wettest day (winter) Central estimates of the change may range from zero in Scotland to increases in parts of southern England Wettest day (summer) Parts of southern England may experience the smallest increases whilst parts of Scotland the greatest 13 Mean daily min. temp. increases: Summer: 2.7°C to 4.1°C Winter: 2.1°C to 3.5°C Changes lie in range +2.4°C to +4.8°C Very little change for central estimate Biggest increases: 33% Some decreases of a few % Outer bounds probability ranges (10% & 90% probability levels) 2.2°C and 6.8°C 1.2°C and 4.1°C Summer: 1.3°C and 4.5°C 2.0°C and 7.1°C Winter: 0.6°C and 3.7°C 1.5°C and 5.9°C -2.4°C and +6.8°C +0.2°C and +12.3°C Range of changes: -16% (lower) to +14% (upper) Increases: +9% to +70%. Decreases: -11% to +7% Decreases of: -40% -65% to -6% Central estimate change: zero to +25% Central estimate range: -12% to +12% -12% to +13% +7% to +56% -38% to +9% -1% to +51% vi The IPCC emission scenario used to represent medium emissions for the UKCP09 analyses is the A1B scenario. This scenario assumes a balanced mix of energy sources and conversion technologies, such that no single source of energy is overly dominant. Chapter 2
Page 1 and 2: Adapting Institutions to Climate Ch
Page 3 and 4: The cover image of an adaptation sn
Page 5 and 6: ROYAL COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL P
Page 7 and 8: Contents vii Paragraph Page Chapter
Page 9 and 10: Specific institutional arrangements
Page 11 and 12: 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Chapter 1 INTRO
Page 13 and 14: 1.9 1.10 What is adaptation? The In
Page 15 and 16: 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22 Secondly, much
Page 17 and 18: every circumstance. However, the Co
Page 19 and 20: 2.15 Average global sea levels are
Page 21: UKCP09 projections differ from thos
Page 25 and 26: FIGURE 2-II Projected changes to wi
Page 27 and 28: 2.29 Some of the projected temperat
Page 29 and 30: FIGURE 2-IV Change in observed temp
Page 31 and 32: 2.52 2.53 2.54 2.55 2.56 2.57 oxyge
Page 33 and 34: 2.63 2.64 2.65 2.66 Not only are ha
Page 35 and 36: 2.73 BOX 2D FACTORS AFFECTING THE C
Page 37 and 38: y the changing climate as sea level
Page 39 and 40: BIODIVERSITY SUMMARY OF THE IMPACTS
Page 41 and 42: climate change”. 70 The new speci
Page 43 and 44: assemblages of conservation importa
Page 45 and 46: 3.7 3.8 action 1 encourages Member
Page 47 and 48: 3.12 FIGURE 3-I Governance structur
Page 49 and 50: 3.14 FIGURE 3-III Climate change im
Page 51 and 52: 3.19 significant role in determinin
Page 53 and 54: their LAA targets. Making use of qu
Page 55 and 56: 3.31 3.32 3.33 3.34 3.35 Anyone wis
Page 57 and 58: 3.40 3.41 3.42 nature. 39 Other und
Page 59 and 60: 3.47 For each of the exemplars, nat
Page 61 and 62: 3.52 3.53 3.54 River Glaven). The a
Page 63 and 64: 3.60 Planning future provision rais
Page 65 and 66: 3.68 3.69 3.70 ordinary watercourse
Page 67 and 68: 3.73 3.74 3.75 3.76 members of the
Page 69 and 70: 3.84 3.85 3.86 3.87 74 SMPs have a
Page 71 and 72: 3.94 Defra announced on 1 December
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3.101 More than 250 Special Protect
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INTRODUCTION 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Chapte
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4.11 4.12 Figure 4-I also introduce
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PATH DEPENDENCY 4.18 4.19 4.20 4.21
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4.25 4.26 4.27 Another way of consi
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Efficiency 4.36 Efficiency is about
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4.47 4.48 4.49 participation. We re
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4.53 The key elements of framing th
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4.55 next. The Council observed tha
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overarching strategic framework set
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4.70 There was a dilemma running th
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when specific measures are necessar
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4.88 4.89 from flooding. Hot-spots
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BOX 4G LEGAL ASPECTS OF COASTAL PRO
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communicative learning in terms of
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is not limited to a single departme
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INTRODUCTION 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.
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5.11 A number of our recommendation
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5.23 5.24 The Climate Change Act 20
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5.34 5.35 5.36 5.37 Two of our earl
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5.46 The Commission recommends that
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5.57 understood in order that it ca
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5.67 5.68 5.69 5.70 There is no obv
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5.79 underpin the need for the gove
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BOX 5A AN INDICATIVE LIST OF TEN QU
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CHAPTER 1 References 1 Royal Commis
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27 Data from the UK Climate Project
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66 Willis, S.G., Hill, J.K., Thomas
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13 Ibid, page 12. 14 For further de
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51 Ofwat (2009). Final Determinatio
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CHAPTER 4 1 Brooks, N. and Adger, W
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37 There is an extensive literature
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4 Greater London Authority Act 2007
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The European Commission has publish
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The study will, therefore, draw on
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Range of climate change Q2) There a
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Values relating to the natural envi
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Adaptive capacity (also referred to
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species that might survive and subs
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Appendix B CONDUCT OF THE STUDY In
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Forestry Commission Grantham Instit
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UK Collaborative on Development Sci
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VISITS During the course of the stu
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Mark Williams Scottish Water Ruth W
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CHAIRMAN Appendix D MEMBERS OF THE
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PROFESSOR MARIA LEE Professor of
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PROFESSOR JOANNE SCOTT Professor
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Abbreviations ACC Adapting to Clima
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SPA Special Protection Area SSSI Si
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Biodiversity Action Plan 2.99 Birds
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supply and treatment of 3.55 Englan
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water supply and wastewater treatme
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institutional arrangements adaptati
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UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP
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