Twenty-eighth Report Adapting Institutions to Climate Change Cm ...

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Chapter 2 2.24 2.25 2.26 2.27 Results from the UKCP09 projections suggest a broad trend of warmer, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters throughout the UK by the end of this century. The projections also suggest that local variations in climate will see average summer temperatures in the least affected areas of the UK rise by 2.5°C and by about 4.5°C in those areas most affected. Table 2.1 illustrates the considerable variability and uncertainty in some of the projected weather variables. These uncertainties mean that, for some variables, we cannot even be confident about the direction of change let alone the size of the change. For example, the 50% probability level for central estimates of annual precipitation shows little change throughout the UK. However, potential changes range from -16% for the 10% probability level at some locations, to +14% in some places for the 90% probability level. Another way to summarise the projections is to use maps. Temperature projections are shown in Figure 2-II for a medium emissions scenario. For winter, the central estimates of change (50% probability level) range between 2°C and 3°C for most of the UK. Slightly larger changes can be seen in the south-east and slightly smaller in the north-west of Britain. For the summer months a more straightforward north–south gradient exists, with projected changes in parts of southern England being a little over 4°C and in parts of northern Scotland about 2.5°C. Central estimates for changes in annual mean precipitation are projected to stay within a few percentage points of zero throughout the UK (Figure 2-III). But there are projected seasonal shifts in rainfall, with a 10-30% increase over most of the UK, and the possibility of much drier summers. Even so, as the bottom-right panel of Figure 2-III shows, UK summers could actually get wetter. 2.28 The projected long-term trend for the UK winters to be warmer will not mean that cold winters will be a phenomenon of the past. Instead, cold winters such as that of 2009-10 will just become less frequent. Inter-annual variability will always be a feature of our climate system and institutions will have to continue to expect such variations. 14
FIGURE 2-II Projected changes to winter and summer seasonal mean temperature for the 2080s 28 Winter Summer 10% probability level Very unlikely to be less than 50% probability level Central estimate 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Change in mean temperature (°C) 15 90% probability level Very unlikely to be greater than Chapter 2
Page 1 and 2: Adapting Institutions to Climate Ch
Page 3 and 4: The cover image of an adaptation sn
Page 5 and 6: ROYAL COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL P
Page 7 and 8: Contents vii Paragraph Page Chapter
Page 9 and 10: Specific institutional arrangements
Page 11 and 12: 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Chapter 1 INTRO
Page 13 and 14: 1.9 1.10 What is adaptation? The In
Page 15 and 16: 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22 Secondly, much
Page 17 and 18: every circumstance. However, the Co
Page 19 and 20: 2.15 Average global sea levels are
Page 21 and 22: UKCP09 projections differ from thos
Page 23: level) and those which are only lik
Page 27 and 28: 2.29 Some of the projected temperat
Page 29 and 30: FIGURE 2-IV Change in observed temp
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Page 33 and 34: 2.63 2.64 2.65 2.66 Not only are ha
Page 35 and 36: 2.73 BOX 2D FACTORS AFFECTING THE C
Page 37 and 38: y the changing climate as sea level
Page 39 and 40: BIODIVERSITY SUMMARY OF THE IMPACTS
Page 41 and 42: climate change”. 70 The new speci
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Page 67 and 68: 3.73 3.74 3.75 3.76 members of the
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INTRODUCTION 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Chapte
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4.11 4.12 Figure 4-I also introduce
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PATH DEPENDENCY 4.18 4.19 4.20 4.21
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4.25 4.26 4.27 Another way of consi
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Efficiency 4.36 Efficiency is about
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4.47 4.48 4.49 participation. We re
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4.53 The key elements of framing th
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4.55 next. The Council observed tha
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overarching strategic framework set
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4.70 There was a dilemma running th
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when specific measures are necessar
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4.88 4.89 from flooding. Hot-spots
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BOX 4G LEGAL ASPECTS OF COASTAL PRO
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communicative learning in terms of
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is not limited to a single departme
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INTRODUCTION 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.
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5.11 A number of our recommendation
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5.23 5.24 The Climate Change Act 20
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5.34 5.35 5.36 5.37 Two of our earl
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5.46 The Commission recommends that
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5.57 understood in order that it ca
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5.67 5.68 5.69 5.70 There is no obv
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5.79 underpin the need for the gove
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BOX 5A AN INDICATIVE LIST OF TEN QU
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CHAPTER 1 References 1 Royal Commis
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27 Data from the UK Climate Project
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66 Willis, S.G., Hill, J.K., Thomas
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13 Ibid, page 12. 14 For further de
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51 Ofwat (2009). Final Determinatio
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CHAPTER 4 1 Brooks, N. and Adger, W
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37 There is an extensive literature
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4 Greater London Authority Act 2007
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The European Commission has publish
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The study will, therefore, draw on
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Range of climate change Q2) There a
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Values relating to the natural envi
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Adaptive capacity (also referred to
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species that might survive and subs
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Appendix B CONDUCT OF THE STUDY In
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Forestry Commission Grantham Instit
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UK Collaborative on Development Sci
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VISITS During the course of the stu
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Mark Williams Scottish Water Ruth W
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CHAIRMAN Appendix D MEMBERS OF THE
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PROFESSOR MARIA LEE Professor of
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PROFESSOR JOANNE SCOTT Professor
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Abbreviations ACC Adapting to Clima
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SPA Special Protection Area SSSI Si
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Biodiversity Action Plan 2.99 Birds
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supply and treatment of 3.55 Englan
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water supply and wastewater treatme
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institutional arrangements adaptati
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UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP
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