Twenty-eighth Report Adapting Institutions to Climate Change Cm ...

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Chapter 2 2.36 2.37 higher pollutant concentrations below point discharges. An increase in the frequency of heavy rain showers may increase the frequency of stormwater discharges from sewers, thus challenging any benefits to water quality gained from higher water temperatures. The potential opportunity to grow more exotic food in the agricultural sector may be tempered by the advent of new and different diseases and pests that survive the milder winters, and so on. Adaptation is not a ‘one-off’ event. The way in which we adapt will need to be continual, rather than a single action designed to solve a predicted or actual problem at a point in time. A key theme of this report is that adaptation is an open-ended process, not an action that ‘solves’ a single problem. Given the uncertainties about future climates, adaptation will be impossible to achieve by single, simple ‘solutions’. Recent extreme weather events in the UK illustrate the scale of the challenge. Although the summer heatwave of 2003 was considered at the time to be an extreme weather event, evidence emerging from climate projections suggests that such events may become more frequent (Figure 2-IV). A fundamental part of society’s response to a changing climate is not only the provision of more resilient physical infrastructure (important as this is) but also the development of robust and flexible institutional arrangements to deal with substantial changes to our weather. POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF UK CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE EXEMPLARS, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS 2.38 In this next section we examine some of the possible consequences of climate change with reference to the three exemplars. As explained in Chapter 1, we have focused on the three areas of water, coastlines and nature conservation, but the general lessons we draw apply to many institutions and institutional arrangements well beyond the three exemplars (1.16). FRESHWATER 2.39 Water is central to life, both for society and for organisms and ecosystems. Too little water poses a big problem but, equally, too much water and/or water in the wrong place can cause loss of life and considerable economic and social disruption. 2.40 2.41 As described in 2.27, current climate change projections suggest that patterns of precipitation in the UK are likely to change over the coming years. There is likely to be change to the seasonal distribution of precipitation, leading to drier summers and wetter winters with more extreme weather such as storms. However, predicting the effect of climate change is not simple. Apart from the inherent uncertainty in the climate change projections themselves, which means, for example, that we cannot be certain about the amount of rainfall, the natural hydrological cycle is heavily affected by other factors, particularly those that are anthropogenic (2.44 and 2.47). How we choose to manage land or water demand and use will impact on the hydrological cycle, so that the effects of climate change may either be intensified or reduced by human interventions. 18
FIGURE 2-IV Change in observed temperature over Western Europe over a 200-year period 34 The black-line graph shows the change in observed temperatures from 1900, including the unusual 2003 temperature (see 2003 arrow). Superimposed in red are the modelled temperature changes extended to 2100. The projections suggest that the unusual temperature experienced over Western Europe in 2003 could be considered normal by 2040 and cool by 2060. Temperature change is illustrated as a change from the 1961-1990 baseline. 2.42 Because of these complex interactions, the hydrological system is non-linear; small changes in precipitation may cause disproportionate changes in other factors such as the environmental quality of rivers and streams, for example, if abstraction rates increase to meet the needs for water. And changes in demand for water as a result of policy, technology or behavioural changes may mitigate some of the impact of drier summers. 2.43 Temperature change (°C) 8 6 4 2 0 Observed temperatures Simulated temperatures -2 1900 1950 2000 Date © Crown copyright Met Office Western Europe In this section we shall illustrate the likely impact of climate change on demand for water, water quality and the risks of drought or flooding. Demand for water 2.44 Climate change is unlikely to be the most significant influence on the demand for water. People may use slightly more water for showering or for domestic gardening, for example, during hot periods (which will become more common) and industrial use may also change. Other factors such as demographic change and greater use of domestic appliances are more significant drivers for higher demand. Other influences, such as policies to reduce demand (for example to charge according to metering or to promote water efficiency), will offset some of these upward pressures. 19 2003 2040s 2060s Summer 2003 normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s 2050 2100 Chapter 2
Page 1 and 2: Adapting Institutions to Climate Ch
Page 3 and 4: The cover image of an adaptation sn
Page 5 and 6: ROYAL COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL P
Page 7 and 8: Contents vii Paragraph Page Chapter
Page 9 and 10: Specific institutional arrangements
Page 11 and 12: 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Chapter 1 INTRO
Page 13 and 14: 1.9 1.10 What is adaptation? The In
Page 15 and 16: 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22 Secondly, much
Page 17 and 18: every circumstance. However, the Co
Page 19 and 20: 2.15 Average global sea levels are
Page 21 and 22: UKCP09 projections differ from thos
Page 23 and 24: level) and those which are only lik
Page 25 and 26: FIGURE 2-II Projected changes to wi
Page 27: 2.29 Some of the projected temperat
Page 31 and 32: 2.52 2.53 2.54 2.55 2.56 2.57 oxyge
Page 33 and 34: 2.63 2.64 2.65 2.66 Not only are ha
Page 35 and 36: 2.73 BOX 2D FACTORS AFFECTING THE C
Page 37 and 38: y the changing climate as sea level
Page 39 and 40: BIODIVERSITY SUMMARY OF THE IMPACTS
Page 41 and 42: climate change”. 70 The new speci
Page 43 and 44: assemblages of conservation importa
Page 45 and 46: 3.7 3.8 action 1 encourages Member
Page 47 and 48: 3.12 FIGURE 3-I Governance structur
Page 49 and 50: 3.14 FIGURE 3-III Climate change im
Page 51 and 52: 3.19 significant role in determinin
Page 53 and 54: their LAA targets. Making use of qu
Page 55 and 56: 3.31 3.32 3.33 3.34 3.35 Anyone wis
Page 57 and 58: 3.40 3.41 3.42 nature. 39 Other und
Page 59 and 60: 3.47 For each of the exemplars, nat
Page 61 and 62: 3.52 3.53 3.54 River Glaven). The a
Page 63 and 64: 3.60 Planning future provision rais
Page 65 and 66: 3.68 3.69 3.70 ordinary watercourse
Page 67 and 68: 3.73 3.74 3.75 3.76 members of the
Page 69 and 70: 3.84 3.85 3.86 3.87 74 SMPs have a
Page 71 and 72: 3.94 Defra announced on 1 December
Page 73 and 74: 3.101 More than 250 Special Protect
Page 75 and 76: INTRODUCTION 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 Chapte
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PATH DEPENDENCY 4.18 4.19 4.20 4.21
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4.25 4.26 4.27 Another way of consi
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Efficiency 4.36 Efficiency is about
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4.47 4.48 4.49 participation. We re
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4.53 The key elements of framing th
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4.55 next. The Council observed tha
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overarching strategic framework set
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4.70 There was a dilemma running th
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when specific measures are necessar
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4.88 4.89 from flooding. Hot-spots
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BOX 4G LEGAL ASPECTS OF COASTAL PRO
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communicative learning in terms of
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is not limited to a single departme
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INTRODUCTION 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.
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5.11 A number of our recommendation
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5.23 5.24 The Climate Change Act 20
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5.34 5.35 5.36 5.37 Two of our earl
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5.46 The Commission recommends that
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5.57 understood in order that it ca
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5.67 5.68 5.69 5.70 There is no obv
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5.79 underpin the need for the gove
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BOX 5A AN INDICATIVE LIST OF TEN QU
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CHAPTER 1 References 1 Royal Commis
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27 Data from the UK Climate Project
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66 Willis, S.G., Hill, J.K., Thomas
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13 Ibid, page 12. 14 For further de
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51 Ofwat (2009). Final Determinatio
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CHAPTER 4 1 Brooks, N. and Adger, W
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37 There is an extensive literature
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4 Greater London Authority Act 2007
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The European Commission has publish
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The study will, therefore, draw on
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Range of climate change Q2) There a
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Values relating to the natural envi
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Adaptive capacity (also referred to
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species that might survive and subs
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Appendix B CONDUCT OF THE STUDY In
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Forestry Commission Grantham Instit
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UK Collaborative on Development Sci
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VISITS During the course of the stu
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Mark Williams Scottish Water Ruth W
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CHAIRMAN Appendix D MEMBERS OF THE
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PROFESSOR MARIA LEE Professor of
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PROFESSOR JOANNE SCOTT Professor
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Abbreviations ACC Adapting to Clima
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SPA Special Protection Area SSSI Si
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Biodiversity Action Plan 2.99 Birds
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supply and treatment of 3.55 Englan
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water supply and wastewater treatme
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institutional arrangements adaptati
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UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP
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