Twenty-eighth Report Adapting Institutions to Climate Change Cm ...

4.11
4.12
Figure 4-I also introduces the need for enhanced discussion, debate and negotiation as uncertainty
increases and ambiguity or ignorance becomes evident. When there is a high level of knowledge
about likelihoods and outcomes (top-left quadrant, Figure 4-I) a focus on expert and agency
engagement in risk assessments and cost–benefit analysis may be appropriate. However, the
context of climate change adaptation is one where knowledge is uncertain, risk–benefit and
risk–cost trade-offs become more complex, and issues of equity for current and future generations
are important. In such circumstances a more open learning environment has to be created.
Stakeholder and public engagement in the decision process become essential. Expert assumptions
must be open to challenge, and other values and interests need to be heard and debated: what
is widely referred to as ‘deliberative engagement’. Opening decision processes to deliberative
participation or engagement inherently enhances both organisational and social learning. What
is important is that climate change decision-makers and agencies understand from the outset
that the adaptation problem is more likely to sit in the ‘ambiguity’ or ‘ignorance’ quadrants of
Figure 4-I. This understanding should help to ensure the appropriate selection of decision tools
and engagement approaches.
FIGURE 4-I
Schematic representation of the different levels of understanding of risk, and
example of approaches for decision making with different dimensions
of uncertainty 2
Knowledge
about
likelihoods
Again, as seen in Chapter 2, a further source of considerable uncertainty about the future lies
with the impact of other key drivers of social and technical change, such as an increasingly mobile
population, future climate change mitigation efforts, or the state of the global economy. Many
aspects of society will change in ways that are extremely difficult to forecast. Indeed, modelling
the climate is relatively straightforward in comparison. Changes in society, both nationally and
globally, and changes in technology will have an impact on the UK that is just as large, if not
larger, than climate change itself. As a nation, we will have to adapt to climate change 50 or 100
years from now in a world that is utterly different from ours, and in multiple ways that we can
only dimly perceive.
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Knowledge about outcomes
RISK
UNCERTAINTY
AMBIGUITY
IGNORANCE
Chapter 4