Twenty-eighth Report Adapting Institutions to Climate Change Cm ...

Chapter 4
4.13
4.14
Importantly, flexibility has to be built into the decision-making processes as well as into the
final decisions, so that future strategies can adapt if and when improved knowledge becomes
available. Flexible approaches acknowledge that where low levels of knowledge about outcomes
and likelihood are present, different methodological approaches are appropriate. This is
demonstrated by the Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) project (Box 3E), which acknowledges
the limitations of ‘predict and provide’ and instead aims to “develop an adaptable long term plan
in the context of a changing estuary … changing in relation to its climate, people and property
in the flood plain and an underlying essential but ageing flood defence system”. 3 Attempts at
prediction must acknowledge that accuracy and precision are impossible. The example provided
by projects such as TE2100 shows that this uncertainty need not lead to despair; it simply
requires a more flexible approach.
Even if we were able to fully understand what the climate system will do, it would not mean
that we could predict how natural systems will respond. This is especially true for biodiversity
(2.83-2.103). This uncertainty presents a particular challenge to those institutions focused on
the conservation of species and habitats. The Commission has noted that it is still not clear how
conservation practices should be adapted for the future, and how existing powers should best be
used to achieve this.
COMPLEXITY
iii 4.15 The next of the four challenges is complexity, both of the problem itself and in the way it is
managed. The wider changes in society referred to in 4.12 are part of the complexity. In terms
of Figure 4-I, if institutions do not recognise when issues fall into the ‘uncertainty’, ‘ambiguity’
or ‘ignorance’ quadrants rather than the ‘risk’ quadrant, they will not be able to manage the
complexities of climate and other changes, their impacts and their vulnerabilities.
4.16
4.17
Complexity can be seen in the way we manage current situations, in terms of the sheer number
of institutions and differing arrangements involved. For example, complexity in organisations
may relate to the number of actors, the scope of their networks, their terms of engagement,
the styles of governance that prevail, and so on. This is evident in the exemplars in Chapter 3,
and it is particularly striking when considering the coastal zone (3.72-3.94). Complexity may be
unavoidable due to the pervasive nature of the adaptation challenge, multilevel governance and
the urgent need for public engagement, but efforts should be made where possible to reduce it.
As discussed in Chapters 1 and 3, actions to adapt to climate change will primarily be local
– firmly rooted in, and specific to, a particular place – and a number of organisations may be
involved. Some of these organisations and associated institutional arrangements will themselves
be local, whilst others will be regional, national or European. Some may be specialist agencies
whilst others, such as the district or county council for the area, will have a much broader remit.
Some agencies will be governmental, others will be non-governmental organisations (NGOs), or
bodies such as the Severn Estuary Partnership which themselves bring together a range of public
and private bodies. Effective solutions can be developed only if all relevant bodies are involved
and, with many players, complexity is inevitable.
iii Again, ‘complexity’ is used here in its broad sense. We are aware that systems theory regards a system as complex
when it consists of many elements which are highly interdependent or linked, and where a change in any one element
of the system will produce a wide range of changes elsewhere in the system, not all of them easily predicted. Systems
theory differentiates a complex system from one which is complicated: where there are many elements but where the
relationships between them are less interdependent. We recognise that both complex and complicated systems are
relevant to adaptation, but we did not feel it necessary to make the distinction for the purposes of this discussion.
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