Twenty-eighth Report Adapting Institutions to Climate Change Cm ...

Chapter 3
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The original approach adopted to provide protection uses sea walls, embankments, barriers, gates
and other flood defence structures designed to protect against a once-in-a-thousand-year flood
up to 2030. Some of the original arrangements of defence structures are gradually deteriorating
and are expected to reach the end of their design life over the next 20-30 years. The potential for
an increased frequency of flooding due to this deterioration and to socio-economic and climate
changes prompted the development of the Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) initiative. The initiative
has been developed by the Anglian, Southern and Thames regions of the Environment Agency.
In order to deal with the inherent uncertainty associated with climate change, the approach to
flood defence had to incorporate a strong element of adaptive management (see Box 3E).
BOX 3E THE THAMES ESTUARY 2100 PROJECT (TE2100) 62
With the TE2100 project, the Environment Agency has shifted efforts in the Thames estuary
from reactive flood defence to proactive flood risk management – the first major British project
to put climate change adaptation at its core.
Instead of extrapolating directly from specific scenarios (such as those provided by UK Climate
Projections (UKCP09)), the TE2100 team used a ‘scenario neutral analysis’ approach, which
has produced a more generic and flexible strategy. This will help avoid over-engineering too
early and overspending, as options (such as new barriers or barrages) will only be deployed
when needed and at a point when they are most useful. Scenario neutral analysis focuses on
thresholds, allowing the team to develop decision pathways in order to identify adaptation
options. TE2100 incorporates continuous monitoring, with links to the British Antarctic
Survey (at the forefront of ice-melt science and hence data on sea level rise), which is essential
for planned adaptation and to provide critical lead times.
Co-ordinated public engagement and participation have been a crucial feature of the project.
The formal consultation period was just one part of this, and the team has worked closely with
people living along the estuary since the project was first commissioned by Defra in 2002.
In developing the project, the team considered a range of socio-economic factors as well as
projected future changes in climate; they employed multi-criteria analysis which enabled them
to factor in intangible qualities, such as a local sense of community, as well as the location of
existing and future infrastructure. The estuary was divided into five principal zones based on
the character of the area and where flood water would flow.
The final plan lays out proposals for the short, medium and long term, which brings implementation
forward to the point where decisions need to be taken. The team has considered the
difficulty of planning so far into the future when decision-makers (for example politicians)
operate on much shorter timescales, and the plan will be reviewed on a five-year rolling basis.
MANAGING COASTAL EROSION AND THE RISK OF INUNDATION
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Many agencies are involved in the management of the coastal zone. An audit of coastal activity in
the east of England by CoastNet found a wide range of stakeholders in possession of five sets of
overlapping plans, 14 designations of coastal sites and landscapes, a mix of management bodies,
many organisational cultures, unco-ordinated organisational activity at different scales, and
overlapping jurisdictions, responsibilities and functions. Besides central Government departments,
four regional bodies, five statutory agencies, four ad hoc groupings, 17 local authorities and five
forums all shared an interest in coastline planning but did not necessarily work together. In
addition, non-governmental organisations and lobby groups, service providers, insurers, businesses,
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