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Improving Access to Labour market Information for migrants and employers 158 same as in 2010. The employment rate for foreign-born women is especially low and they are also the only group that has a lower employment rate in 2011 than in 2005. The employment gap is clearly visible in the unemployment rate which is almost three times higher amongst the foreign born than the native born. It is clear that the foreign-born population suffered the most from the economic crisis in 2008 and 2009. As yet, they have not been able to benefit from the economic recovery. Unemployment amongst the foreign born rose with about 4 percentage points between 2008 and 2010, and in 2011 there was only a small improvement. 1.2. Current occupations/sectors in shortage and skills outlook The Employment Service produces occupational forecasts twice a year. These forecasts describe future prospects for almost 200 occupations in the labour market. A ‘shortage index’ is used to quantify recruitment needs, using a weighted average value from one to five. This index identifies the occupations (occupational groups) where there is a shortage or surplus of applicants. The forecast predicts that the number of employed persons will increase by 5,000 persons in 2012 and by 15,000 persons in 2013. Unemployment is expected to increase somewhat, which is associated with an increase in the supply of labour. Up until 2013 employment in both the manufacturing industry and public service is expected to decrease by 9,000. Other sectors, like the private service sector and the construction sectors are, on the other hand, expected to see an increase in employment amounting to 32,000 and 6,000 respectively (Employment Service, 2012b). All in all, the competition for available jobs will intensify and we will see a further increase in unemployment. As in most countries there is a mismatch in Sweden between demand and supply in the labour market. The major issue is that the group of low educational background is growing while, at the same time, the number of low-skilled jobs is shrinking. The Employment Service forewarns considerable future challenges in the labour market. Many groups will experience growing competition for jobs, especially: • persons with at most a compulsory school education; • young persons, particularly those with insufficient education; • persons born abroad, particularly those born outside of Europe; • persons with a functional impairment and reduced working capacity; • unemployed persons aged 55–64. The number of persons belonging to those groups that have the greatest difficulty in finding work quickly has continued to increase at a steady pace. This increase depends partly on the transfer of persons from the Swedish Social Insurance Agency to the Employment Service. In order to strengthen the work-first principle, a number of regulatory reforms in social insurance meant that persons on long-term sick leave lost their compensation and were referred to a labour market programme at the Employment Service. There is also substantial immigration. The number of persons
orn abroad between the ages of 16 and 64 has since 2005 grown by about 240,000 persons. About two thirds of them are persons who have immigrated to Sweden from countries outside of Europe. The immigration from third countries is the main explanation for the fact that the total number of unemployed persons with at most a compulsory school education has doubled in just under four years, despite the fact that half in this education group is outside the labour force. In April 2012, there were 113,000 unemployed in this category. An increase to over 120,000 persons is likely in 2013 (Employment Service, 2012b). As a result of this development, the competition for those with little education will remain tough. Table 9.2 shows the occupational forecast in a short-term perspective. The jobs with a shortage of applicants are mostly those that require higher education and skills, but there are also openings for those with upper secondary education in some sectors. During the coming year there will be a shortage of workers in the IT and technology sector. There is also a lack of preschool teachers and personnel with higher education within the health-care sector. The shortage is particularly acute for doctors, specialized nurses, pharmacists and dentists. Even though the number of jobs in restaurants and other services will grow, there is still a surplus of workers in these sectors. There will also be an excess of workers in most occupations in the manufacturing industry. Table 9.2: Occupations forecast until the first half of 2013 76 Greatest shortage of applicants Greatest surplus of applicants Computer systems designers, analysts and programmers Ships’ deck crews and related workers Medical doctors Helpers in restaurants Mining engineers, metallurgists and related professionals Photographers Cooks Securities and finance dealers and brokers Civil engineers, building and construction Authors, journalists and related professionals Psychiatric nurses Home-based personal care and related workers Electrical engineers Child-care workers Emergency room nurses Electrical- and electronic-equipment assemblers Computing professionals not elsewhere classified Shop salespersons, non-food stores Geriatric nurses Shop salespersons, food stores Electrical engineers Image and sound recording equipment operators Electronics and telecommunications engineers Assistant nurses and hospital ward assistants Sheet-metal workers Market research analysts and related professionals 76 Occupations as listed in Swedish Standard Classification of Occupations (SSYK). country studIes – SWEDEN 159
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International Organization for Migr
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tAbLe of contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
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3.1. Assessment and validation of f
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Acronyms ACS American Community Sur
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NOC(S National Occupation Classific
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LIst of tAbLes Table 7.1: Legal pro
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ImprovIng Access to LAbour mArket I
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Improving Access to Labour market I
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GERMANY 6 Amelie f. constant and ul
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and Zimmermann (2012) explain the G
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Recent legal changes and amendments
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Some public initiatives that should
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to an unlimited time period. No fur
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about foreign educational systems,
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of the total net immigration. Afric
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country, the number of high-skilled
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International migration largely occ
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provide indirect evidence on this i
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the placement of such persons into
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caution since their positive effect
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youths require more time to turn su
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DIHK 2012 Integration sichert Zukun
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1.1. Labour market trends Current t
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only in 1998 with the Turco-Napolit
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Table 7.1: Legal provisions for the
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The situation is different for medi
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Table 7.4: Planned non-seasonal hir
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share of positive answers of Italia
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Table 7.5: Job search strategies of
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is required for indefinite leave to
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3.3. The role of public employment
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The United Kingdom government has e
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Davies, M. and J. Owers 2012 Immigr
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country studIes edited by maria vin
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