Section One

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efficiency in the transportation sector, will likely play an expanding role. In the past year or so, it has also become evident that the unconventional gas revolution in the US – and potentially elsewhere – has increased the attractiveness of natural gas as an avenue to reduce carbon intensity in power generation, and, possibly, the transportation sector. This could affect the attractiveness of electric vehicles in the future. For example, welldocumented concerns over the need to consider ‘well-to-wheels’ emissions for electric vehicles, particularly when coal is used to generate electricity for the electric car, could be fundamentally affected by these developments. More shale gas use could lessen the need for coal. Another specific area requiring close attention is the future regulation of emissions from commercial vehicles, particularly in developing countries. It should also be emphasized that capabilities for various technologies differ from region-to-region. For instance, wind energy is more likely to take off where the wind blows most reliably, such as in Northern Europe; prospects for solar can be expected to be brighter in sunnier climes, such as the Mediterranean region; and hydropower is anticipated to make greater waves in developing countries, given the fact that many developed countries have little hydropower potential left to exploit. Overall, climate change concerns are a key potential driver of policies and technologies that may lead to significantly different energy paths from those described in the Reference Case. And even if a global climate policy agreement is unlikely in the current environment, national and regional initiatives are continuing to emerge. Yet another future driver of change relates to concerns over energy security. The notion of energy independence has long been dismissed in sober assessments as unrealistic and, ultimately, unhelpful. However, the fact that some regions of the world will continue to import a major proportion of their oil requirements, could see the concept continue to dominate thinking at both the policy and electoral levels. In turn, this may lead to future developments that target oil imports. In this context, it is worth noting that energy supply security is essentially an electricity issue: key outages experienced across the globe over the past 15 years have practically all been related to electrical power cuts. Nevertheless, oil supply security concerns are likely to constitute another magnet for policies that focus upon reduced oil demand, and encourage the development and supply of alternative fuels. There are several other areas that could drive policy and technology into directions that are markedly different from the Reference Case, and, in turn, reduce oil use and encourage supply from alternative fuels. For example, support for agriculture could help address surplus crops to further develop biofuels, or to better use low yield land. Such policies could also be linked to economic transformation efforts that aim to develop new industries and new export opportunities. An example of this was the 131 Chapter 4
132 early support given to Brazil’s biofuels industry. In the current economic climate, this could potentially go two ways. It could mean that unemployment policy becomes increasingly linked to energy policy to generate jobs growth. Indeed, this has already been very visibly in the case of Germany, where domestic coal has been historically subsidised in order to protect jobs. However, there is the possibility that government support for such industries might be withdrawn. Given all these factors, alternative paths to the Reference Case are increasingly likely. The ATTP scenario therefore makes a number of assumptions to explore the possible impacts of feasible and realistic alternatives to these. Specifically, it is assumed that: • Efficiency improvements to internal combustion engines, accelerated shifts to hybrids, and in some parts of the world electric vehicles, a more rapid penetration of natural gas in the transportation sector, again in some parts of the world, and an accelerated move to regulate efficiencies in commercial vehicles, lead to an additional 0.5% p.a. improvement in the average oil use per vehicle; • Concerns over import dependency leads to more aggressive support for alternative fuels, in particular biofuels, CTLs, biomass-to-liquids (BTLs) and CNG; • Regulation of international marine bunkers leads to more efficient fuel use in this sector, also at an additional rate of 0.5% p.a. This will stem increasingly from stringent regulation, as well as alternative assumptions for how the international marine industry responds to higher oil prices than in the past, for example, through greater emphasis on ‘slow-steaming’; and • Increased efficiencies will lead to reduced costs of travel, and, therefore, the potential for some ‘rebound effect’ in the form of higher transportation activity. Table 4.1 Oil demand in the ATTP scenario mb/d 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 OECD 45.7 44.3 42.7 41.0 39.3 Developing countries 41.3 46.1 50.2 53.9 57.6 Transition economies 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 World 92.0 95.6 98.2 100.3 102.3 Difference from Reference Case OECD –0.4 –0.9 –1.5 –2.1 –2.6 Developing countries –0.4 –1.1 –2.0 –3.1 –4.3 Transition economies –0.1 –0.2 –0.2 –0.3 –0.4 World -0.9 –2.2 –3.8 –5.5 –7.3
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
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commodities, the OTC market also in
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IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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in the strength of the dollar: in N
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to this, there is the dominance of
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Although these reduced growth targe
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Global and regional population leve
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average of 67% of the population in
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Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
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Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
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Policies The Reference Case retains
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electric vehicles, which focuses on
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Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
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40 years. While the early high perf
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Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
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is Japan itself, which has been ask
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Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
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Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
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Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
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low, and well below levels seen in
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has also taken into account the pot
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stronger than previously expected s
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d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
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Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
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different picture. By 2035, Annex I
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78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
Page 59 and 60: 80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
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Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
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Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
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Page 79 and 80: 100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
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Page 85 and 86: 106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
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Page 101 and 102: 122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
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Page 105 and 106: 126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
Page 107 and 108: 128 Of utmost importance, in respec
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Page 113 and 114: 134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
Page 115 and 116: 136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
Page 117 and 118: 138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
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Page 121 and 122: 142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
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Section One

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