Section One

n (millions)
7,000
0
China Brazil Russia India Mexico Japan Indonesia Poland Iran Argentina
Figure 2.6
Car ownership levels compared to real GDP per capita
cars per 1,000
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
Figure 2.6 test 2
US
Germany
UK
France
Italy
Canada
Japan
0
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
700
300
Figure 2.7
Figure 2.8
GDP per capita ($(2005))
even fall, as millions incomes increase and car ownership ratios rise. These impacts are key to
the oil demand growth slowdown observed in OECD countries.
Table 2.2 presents the Reference Case projections for the number of passenger
600 cars. By 2035, there will more than 1.6 billion cars in the world. Over the period
Other developing
2008–2035, OECD countries see an additional 131 million countries cars on the road. For
developing 500 countries, however, the increase is far more dramatic, with the number
of cars rising by 628 million (Figure 2.7). This means that within two decades there
will be 400 more cars in developing countries than in the OECD. More than 58% of the
increase in cars over this timeframe will be in developing Asia.
In the period to 2035, the per capita car ownership picture changes markedly. In de-
Asian developing
countries
veloping 200 countries it increases from an average of 37 per 1,000 in 2008 to 118 per 1,000
by 2035, while OECD rates of ownership increase from 489 to 539 per 1,000. In line
with recent 100 developments, OECD and transition its huge growth potential, China sees the most dramatic
economy countries
rise, from just 27 cars per 1,000 in 2008 to 194 per 1,000 by 2035, similar to the rate
seen in Western 0 Europe in 1974, and the OECD Pacific in 1982. Transition economies
see a rapid rise in car ownership too, from 125 per 1,000 in 2008 to 379 per 1,000 in
2035. Latin America and Southeast Asia also rise to considerably higher ownership rates,
83
Chapter
2