Section One

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Global and regional population levels for 2010 and 2035 are shown in Table 1.2. The total number of people in the world rises from just over 6.9 billion in 2010 to almost 8.6 billion in 2035. 12 This 1.7 billion increase represents an average growth of 1% p.a. over the current decade, dropping to 0.7% p.a. over the period 2020–2035. Only 110 million of the increase for the period 2010–2035 is in OECD countries, while close to 1.6 billion more people will be living in developing countries (Figures 1.3 and 1.4). The greatest increase, in both numbers and in percentage terms, will be the Middle East & Africa, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, while the population will also grow rapidly in South Asia. For example, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh is seen by the United Nations (UN) to experience population increases between 2010–2035 of 313 million, 100 million and 46 million respectively. OPEC population growth rates are also expected to be among the highest, with the largest increase in Nigeria (Figure 1.5). The implications of population dynamics on energy consumption patterns are also influenced by the changing age structure. This affects, for instance, the size of the labour force 13 for a given total population size, but also has direct consequences for energy demand patterns, for example, due to the number of people within the population that can hold drivers licences. With the ageing trend in most countries leading to a growing proportion of retirees, the share of working age people within a population is steadily shrinking. OECD countries have an Figure 1.3 Figure 1.3 Average annual population growth rates 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 –0.1 –0.3 % p.a. North America Other OECD China Other developing countries Transition economies North America Other OECD China 2010–2020 2020–2035 Other developing countries Transition economies 39 Chapter 1
40 Figure 1.4 Average annual population % p.a. growth 65 55 45 35 25 15 5 –5 millions North America Other OECD China Other developinig Other countries OECD Figure 1.5 Increase in population, 2010–2035 2.0 0.5 0 –1.0 % p.a. 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 –0.1 –0.3 Middle East & Africa 1.5 South Asia OPEC 1.0 Southeast Asia North America China North America Latin America Western Europe –0.5 Other transition economies OECD Pacific Russia Transition economies China North America Figure 1.4 Other OECD China Figure 1.6 Other developing Other countries OECD 2010–2020 2020–2035 Other OECD North America China Other developing countries Figure 1.3 Transition economies Other developing countries Transition economies North America Other OECD North America Figure 1.5 China 2010–2020 2020–2035 Other developing countries Figure 1.7 Transition economies China 2010–2020 2020–2035 –100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Transition economies Other developing countries Transition economies millions
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Page 4 and 5: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Page 22 and 23: Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
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Page 30 and 31: Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
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Page 36 and 37: is Japan itself, which has been ask
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
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Page 44 and 45: low, and well below levels seen in
Page 46 and 47: has also taken into account the pot
Page 48 and 49: stronger than previously expected s
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90 acquisition costs, and the lower
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92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
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94 rose by an average of more than
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96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
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98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in
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100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
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102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
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104 Figure 2.15 Share of industry i
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106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
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108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in
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110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
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112
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114 In Canada, although the Outlook
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116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
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118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
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120 limiting factor for feasible su
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122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
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124 some deposits will not be suffi
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126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
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128 Of utmost importance, in respec
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130 influences and, therefore, brin
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132 early support given to Brazil
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134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
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136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
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138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
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140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
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142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
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144 identifies sustainable long-ter
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146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
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148 other international research an
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Section One

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