Section One

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has also taken into account the potential for supply growth coming from shale oil in the US. The medium-term Reference Case outlook for non-OPEC supply, as well as for OPEC crude, GTLs and natural gas liquids (NGLs), appears in Table 1.8, while non- OPEC supply growth over the period 2010–2015 is shown in Figure 1.20 (a more detailed analysis of these developments appears in Chapter 3). Total non-OPEC supply increases steadily over the medium-term, rising by 3 mb/d over the five years from 2010–2015. The key supply sources behind this are the rising levels of crude oil from the Caspian and Brazil, increases in the production of oil from Canadian oil sands, Table 1.8 Medium-term oil supply outlook in the Reference Case mb/d 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 US & Canada 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 Mexico 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 Western Europe 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 OECD Pacific 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 OECD 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 Latin America 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.5 5.7 Middle East & Africa 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 Asia 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 China 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 DCs, excl. OPEC 16.9 17.3 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.4 Russia 10.1 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.3 10.3 Other transition economies 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 Transition economies 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.3 Processing gains 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 Non-OPEC 52.3 52.9 53.6 54.1 54.7 55.3 of which: non-conventional 3.9 4.4 4.8 5.3 5.8 6.1 NGLs 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.4 6.4 OPEC NGLs 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.2 OPEC GTLs* 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 OPEC crude 29.3 30.2 30.4 30.9 31.1 31.3 World supply 86.4 88.4 89.7 90.9 92.0 93.1 * Future growth of non-conventional oil in OPEC is expected to be dominated by GTLs. This item includes other non-crude streams, such as methyl tetra-butyl ether (MTBE). 67 Chapter 1
5 mb/d 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 68 1980–2008 2008–2035 Figure 1.20 Growth in non-OPEC supply, 2010–2015 mb/d Conventional US & Canada 58 Mexico 57 Western Europe OECD Pacific 56 Latin America Middle East & Africa 55 Asia China 54 Russia Other transition 53 economies mb/d No 52 51 50 O Figure 1.20 Non-conventional Biofuels Other mb/d –1.0 –0.5 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 Year of WOO Figure 1.21 OPEC crude oil capacity and supply 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 mb/d Non-crude Crude Wes Non-crude Non-crude Crude Crude 2010–2015 2015–2020 2020–2035 mb/d La Other transition Sou Middle E 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Capacity Crude supply Figure 1.21 (new) Figure 1.23 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 1.19 Figure 1.22
Page 1 and 2: Section One
Page 4 and 5: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 6 and 7: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
Page 8 and 9: commodities, the OTC market also in
Page 10 and 11: IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
Page 12 and 13: in the strength of the dollar: in N
Page 14 and 15: to this, there is the dominance of
Page 16 and 17: Although these reduced growth targe
Page 18 and 19: Global and regional population leve
Page 20 and 21: average of 67% of the population in
Page 22 and 23: Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
Page 24 and 25: Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
Page 26 and 27: Policies The Reference Case retains
Page 28 and 29: electric vehicles, which focuses on
Page 30 and 31: Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
Page 32 and 33: 40 years. While the early high perf
Page 34 and 35: Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
Page 36 and 37: is Japan itself, which has been ask
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
Page 40 and 41: Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
Page 42 and 43: Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
Page 44 and 45: low, and well below levels seen in
Page 48 and 49: stronger than previously expected s
Page 50 and 51: d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
Page 52 and 53: Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
Page 54: different picture. By 2035, Annex I
Page 57 and 58: 78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
Page 59 and 60: 80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
Page 61 and 62: 82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64: n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
Page 65 and 66: ion (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,
Page 67 and 68: 88 Conventional powertrain technolo
Page 69 and 70: 90 acquisition costs, and the lower
Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
Page 73 and 74: 94 rose by an average of more than
Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
Page 77 and 78: 98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in
Page 79 and 80: 100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
Page 81 and 82: 102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
Page 83 and 84: 104 Figure 2.15 Share of industry i
Page 85 and 86: 106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
Page 87 and 88: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in
Page 89 and 90: 110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
Page 91 and 92: 112
Page 93 and 94: 114 In Canada, although the Outlook
Page 95 and 96: 116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
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118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
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120 limiting factor for feasible su
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122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
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124 some deposits will not be suffi
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126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
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128 Of utmost importance, in respec
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130 influences and, therefore, brin
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132 early support given to Brazil
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134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
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136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
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138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
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140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
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142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
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144 identifies sustainable long-ter
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146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
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148 other international research an
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Section One

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