Section One

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Table 4.3 World oil demand in the lower economic growth scenario mb/d 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 OECD 45.4 43.8 42.2 40.4 38.5 Developing countries 41.1 45.6 49.4 53.0 56.5 Transition economies 5.0 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.6 World 91.5 94.6 96.9 98.8 100.6 Difference from Reference Case OECD –0.7 –1.4 –2.1 –2.8 –3.4 Developing countries –0.7 –1.7 –2.8 –4.0 –5.4 Transition economies –0.1 –0.1 –0.2 –0.3 –0.3 World –1.5 –3.2 –5.1 –7.0 –9.1 Table 4.4 Oil supply in the lower economic growth scenario mb/d 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Non-OPEC 55.1 56.4 56.9 57.4 58.6 OPEC crude 30.0 30.8 31.8 32.1 32.2 Difference from Reference Case Non-OPEC –0.2 –0.8 –1.4 –1.8 –1.9 OPEC crude –1.3 –2.3 –3.6 –5.2 –7.1 Table 4.5 World oil demand in the higher economic growth scenario mb/d 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 OECD 46.6 46.4 46.2 45.8 45.4 Developing countries 42.2 48.6 54.7 60.8 67.1 Transition economies 5.2 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.2 World 94.0 100.5 106.6 112.6 118.7 Difference from Reference Case OECD 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.7 3.4 Developing countries 0.5 1.4 2.5 3.8 5.3 Transition economies 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 World 1.1 2.7 4.6 6.8 9.1 137 Chapter 4
138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply in the higher economic growth scenario mb/d mb/d 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Non-OPEC 110 55.6 58.6 60.7 62.3 63.8 OPEC crude 105 Difference from Reference Case 32.1 34.6 37.6 Reference Case 41.1 45.2 Non-OPEC 100 0.2 1.3 2.4 3.1 3.2 OPEC crude 95 0.8 1.4 2.2 ATTP 3.7 5.8 90 Comparing these results to the ATTP scenario, in terms of oil demand growth, oil supply 85 and investments, offers up some interesting contrasts. Over the mediumterm, the downside risk to demand is slightly more pronounced in the lower economic 80growth scenario. However, over the long-term, when policies begin to have impacts upon efficiencies and the development and introduction of alternative fuels, the ATTP 75 scenario has much greater downside and the impacts upon OPEC become more significant. 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Figure 4.2 World oil demand in the higher and lower economic Figure 4.3 growth scenarios 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 mb/d Higher economic growth Lower economic growth Reference Case 75 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 ATTP Figure 4.5 mb/d 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 46 44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 0 mb/d 200
Page 1 and 2:
Section One
Page 4 and 5:
Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 6 and 7:
Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
Page 8 and 9:
commodities, the OTC market also in
Page 10 and 11:
IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
Page 12 and 13:
in the strength of the dollar: in N
Page 14 and 15:
to this, there is the dominance of
Page 16 and 17:
Although these reduced growth targe
Page 18 and 19:
Global and regional population leve
Page 20 and 21:
average of 67% of the population in
Page 22 and 23:
Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
Page 24 and 25:
Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
Page 26 and 27:
Policies The Reference Case retains
Page 28 and 29:
electric vehicles, which focuses on
Page 30 and 31:
Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
Page 32 and 33:
40 years. While the early high perf
Page 34 and 35:
Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
Page 36 and 37:
is Japan itself, which has been ask
Page 38 and 39:
Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
Page 40 and 41:
Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
Page 42 and 43:
Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
Page 44 and 45:
low, and well below levels seen in
Page 46 and 47:
has also taken into account the pot
Page 48 and 49:
stronger than previously expected s
Page 50 and 51:
d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
Page 52 and 53:
Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
Page 54:
different picture. By 2035, Annex I
Page 57 and 58:
78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
Page 59 and 60:
80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
Page 61 and 62:
82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64:
n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
Page 65 and 66: ion (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,
Page 67 and 68: 88 Conventional powertrain technolo
Page 69 and 70: 90 acquisition costs, and the lower
Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
Page 73 and 74: 94 rose by an average of more than
Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
Page 77 and 78: 98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in
Page 79 and 80: 100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
Page 81 and 82: 102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
Page 83 and 84: 104 Figure 2.15 Share of industry i
Page 85 and 86: 106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
Page 87 and 88: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in
Page 89 and 90: 110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
Page 91 and 92: 112
Page 93 and 94: 114 In Canada, although the Outlook
Page 95 and 96: 116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
Page 97 and 98: 118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
Page 99 and 100: 120 limiting factor for feasible su
Page 101 and 102: 122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
Page 103 and 104: 124 some deposits will not be suffi
Page 105 and 106: 126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
Page 107 and 108: 128 Of utmost importance, in respec
Page 109 and 110: 130 influences and, therefore, brin
Page 111 and 112: 132 early support given to Brazil
Page 113 and 114: 134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
Page 115: 136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
Page 119 and 120: 140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
Page 121 and 122: 142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
Page 123 and 124: 144 identifies sustainable long-ter
Page 125 and 126: 146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
Page 127 and 128: 148 other international research an
show all

Section One

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?