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Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Case oil demand outlook mb/d 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 North America 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.2 24.1 Western Europe 14.5 14.4 14.3 14.3 14.3 14.2 OECD Pacific 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 OECD 46.1 46.2 46.2 46.3 46.2 46.0 Latin America 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 Middle East & Africa 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 South Asia 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 Southeast Asia 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.8 China 8.9 9.6 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.6 OPEC 8.1 8.3 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 Developing countries 35.9 37.1 38.3 39.4 40.6 41.8 Russia 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 Other transition economies 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 Transition economies 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 World 86.8 88.2 89.5 90.7 91.8 92.9 Over the period 2010–2015, OECD oil demand is essentially flat, having peaked in 2005. With transition economies registering only a minor increase, the medium-term rise of 6.1 mb/d over the years 2010–2015 comes mainly from developing countries, with 4 mb/d of this occurring in developing Asia. By 2015, non-OECD oil demand will be greater than OECD oil demand for the first time. Figure 1.15 summarizes the revisions to demand levels in 2015, compared to the WOO 2010. Higher expectations are registered for all OECD regions. 32 In developing countries the main revisions have been for China and Latin America, mainly because of stronger than expected growth in 2010. Oil demand in the long-term While the central driver for medium-term oil demand is the economy, which is therefore the biggest source of uncertainty in this timeframe, in the long-term, 61 Chapter 1
62 Figure 1.15 Figure 1.15 Revisions for 2015 oil demand: WOO 2011, compared to WOO 2010 North America Western Europe OECD Pacific Latin America Middle East & Africa South Asia Southeast Asia China OPEC Transition economies –0.2 –0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 other key drivers come in to play. As well as long-term economic growth, the future impact of policies, technologies, and, to a lesser extent, oil price developments, will increasingly influence future demand patterns beyond the mediumterm. 33 To assess the impact of the related uncertainties, scenarios are developed in Chapter 4. Given the assumptions outlined earlier in this Chapter, the outlook for longterm oil demand in the Reference Case is presented in Table 1.7. Demand increases by close to 23 mb/d over the period 2010–2035, reaching just under 110 mb/d by 2035. As previously highlighted, OECD demand has already peaked in 2005, and the longer term sees a steady demand decline in all OECD regions. Fully 80% of the increase in global demand is in developing Asia, where demand reaches almost 90% of that of the OECD by 2035 (Figure 1.16). Global demand in 2030, at close to 106 mb/d, is slightly higher than in the WOO 2010, mainly due to the swifter recovery from the recession assumed in the Reference Case. Despite developing countries being the drivers of future oil demand increases, it does not change the fact that per capita oil use in these countries will remain relatively mb/d
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Page 4 and 5: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Page 10 and 11: IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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Page 22 and 23: Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
Page 24 and 25: Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
Page 26 and 27: Policies The Reference Case retains
Page 28 and 29: electric vehicles, which focuses on
Page 30 and 31: Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
Page 32 and 33: 40 years. While the early high perf
Page 34 and 35: Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
Page 36 and 37: is Japan itself, which has been ask
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
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Page 44 and 45: low, and well below levels seen in
Page 46 and 47: has also taken into account the pot
Page 48 and 49: stronger than previously expected s
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Page 54: different picture. By 2035, Annex I
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Page 61 and 62: 82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64: n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
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Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
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Page 81 and 82: 102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
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112
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114 In Canada, although the Outlook
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116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
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118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
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120 limiting factor for feasible su
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122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
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124 some deposits will not be suffi
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126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
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128 Of utmost importance, in respec
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130 influences and, therefore, brin
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132 early support given to Brazil
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134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
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136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
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138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
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140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
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142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
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144 identifies sustainable long-ter
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146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
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148 other international research an
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Section One

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