Section One
Section One
Section One
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66<br />
N<br />
We<br />
Figure 1.19<br />
WOO projections for non-OPEC supply in 2015<br />
58<br />
57<br />
56<br />
55<br />
54<br />
53<br />
52<br />
51<br />
50<br />
mb/d<br />
L<br />
Other transitio<br />
Figure 1.21 (new)<br />
assumed that “downward pressures to economic growth are not prolonged”. On the<br />
other mb/d<br />
hand, the WOO 2009 was written while the global financial crisis was in full<br />
swing, 40 with the recognition that the subsequent recession could turn out to be “the<br />
longest and most Capacitywidespread Crude supply since the Second World War” and with oil prices having<br />
plummeted 35 at the end of 2008. It is thus no surprise that the WOO 2009 assessment<br />
of medium-term supply prospects emphasizes that “lower prices are leading to cancel-<br />
30 lations and delays”. Downward revisions to non-OPEC supply were therefore made<br />
across every world region.<br />
25<br />
20 What these past revisions clearly reflect is that supply projections, as with<br />
demand, must reflect the emerging circumstances and the corresponding possible<br />
changes 15 in expectations for how future supply will evolve, at least in the Reference<br />
Case. Last year’s WOO had already become more bullish on the prospects for non-<br />
10<br />
OPEC supply, recognizing that “the potential short- and medium-term adverse impact<br />
5 on oil supplies of the economic crisis, the debt financing difficulties and the<br />
low oil price environment has now eased”. This year’s revised Reference Case set of<br />
projections 0 continues that process, reflecting the more rapid recovery from recession<br />
and the higher 2010 price 2011 expectations 2012 that have 2013 been outlined 2014 earlier 2015 in this Chapter. It<br />
mb/d<br />
So<br />
Middle<br />
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011<br />
Figure 1.19<br />
Figure 1.22<br />
Year of WOO