Section One

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from 63% to 10% in Southeast Asia, from 46% to 8% in OECD Pacific, and from
23% to just 1% in China. 49 However, the share has fallen everywhere: it now accounts
for just 3% of inputs in North America, Western Europe and transition economies.
Although it has also dropped in importance relative to other fuels, notably natural gas,
oil still retains a significant share in OPEC and Latin American electricity generation,
at 34% and 23%, respectively (Figure 2.18).
In absolute terms, OPEC remains the most important user of the regional groupings
for electricity generation, accounting for more than one quarter of all oil used in
this sector globally (Figure 2.19). It should be noted, however, that despite the low
share in OECD countries, this group of countries still contributes over 30% to oil demand
in electricity generation. However, there is growing impetus for a shift towards
the use of natural gas in this sector.
It is expected that there will continue to be limited scope for oil use in this sector,
with further switching towards other fuels likely. Some short-term responses to
the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan demonstrated the flexibility that comes from
Table 2.20
Oil demand in electricity generation in the Reference Case mboe/d
Levels Growth
2008 2010 2020 2035 2008–2035
North America 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0
Western Europe 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 –0.2
OECD Pacific 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 –0.3
OECD 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.1 –0.5
Latin America 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 –0.1
Middle East & Africa 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.3
South Asia 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3
Southeast Asia 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0
China 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 –0.1
OPEC 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 –0.2
Developing countries 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 0.3
Russia 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 –0.1
Other transition economies 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 –0.1
Transition economies 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 –0.2
World 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.0 –0.4