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Table 2.4 Average growth in oil use per vehicle % p.a. 1971–1980 1980–1990 1990–2008 2008–2035 North America –1.6 –0.8 0.0 –1.5 Western Europe –0.7 –0.4 –0.8 –1.6 OECD Pacific –1.6 0.4 –1.0 –1.5 OECD –1.3 –0.5 –0.5 –1.5 Latin America –4.7 –2.9 –1.4 –1.6 Middle East & Africa –0.6 –1.0 –1.1 –2.6 South Asia 5.0 –2.1 –5.5 –2.7 Southeast Asia 1.2 –0.6 –3.4 –2.4 China –5.1 –5.1 –2.9 –3.4 OPEC 2.5 –0.5 –2.5 –1.9 Developing countries –1.6 –1.9 –2.4 –2.4 Russia n/a n/a –5.4 –1.2 Other transition economies n/a n/a –4.7 –1.1 Transition economies 2.0 –2.1 –5.3 –1.2 World –1.1 –0.8 –0.9 –1.7 Box 2.1 Road transportation technology: where are the wheels turning? Given the central role of the road transportation sector in future oil demand growth prospects, it is essential to better understand where technology in the sector is heading. Of the many drivers at play, it is policies that could constitute the major factor in influencing the research, development, diffusion and deployment of more advanced vehicle-related technologies, as well as consumer choices. Until now, policy has typically focused upon improving air quality by mandating reduced pollutant emissions (nitrogen oxide (NOx), sulphur oxide (SO 2 ), aromatics, etc.) and imposing more stringent product specifications. This will continue in the future. Increasingly, however, other objectives are also being pursued by policymakers. Two appear to be gaining in prominence: to limit GHGs, particularly CO 2, and to improve fuel economies. While the former is at present mainly being pursued in Europe, the latter concerns all regions of the world. This is impacting all road transportation technologies. 87 Chapter 2
88 Conventional powertrain technology is expected to remain a source of efficiency gains. Manufacturers will focus on a range of evolutionary steps to realize improvements for CO 2 emissions and fuel consumption. These will centre on base engine updates, thermal management, energy management and the downsizing of engines. Non-powertrain improvements, such as reduced roll resistance tyres, vehicle weight reduction and aerodynamic improvements will also play a significant role. Today, clean diesel engines offer at least 20% better fuel consumption than conventional gasoline engines. The limited popularity of diesel (except in Europe), however, means that wide scale technology improvements will be dependent on gasoline engine updates. These offer significant potential, in the areas highlighted earlier, and it is expected that the performance gap to diesel engines will be progressively reduced. Hybrid and plug-in vehicles will also begin to have an impact on the vehicle sales mix, with the share of internal combustion engine hybrids and plug-ins in new passenger car sales expected to reach 15% and 20%, respectively, by 2035. Their expansion will be spurred on by legislative targets imposed by regulators in a growing number of the world’s major consuming markets. Several types of hybrid, such as stop-start macro hybrids, mild hybrids and full hybrids, as well as plug-ins, are expected to be introduced, targeted at specific applications and vehicle segments. Hybrid vehicles are currently disadvantaged by such factors as high system costs, particularly in terms of engine production, higher prices, limited battery life, replacement costs and the idea that their ‘real world fuel economy’ may not match a manufacturers’ stated levels. The relative take-up of different types of hybrids is likely to be significantly influenced not only by price premiums, but also by regional differences and car manufacturer policy. The markets with established niche positions, such as the US and Japan, as well as hybrid-focused manufacturers, like Toyota and Honda, have a strong preference for gasoline hybrids. Diesel hybrids face higher powertrain costs and are likely to be more successful in the premium vehicle segment and in regions where there is a greater acceptance of diesel. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and electric vehicles are set to grow, but technology and infrastructure are still in their infancy and customer habits will need time to change. Moreover, the market share of electric vehicles is likely to remain small, particularly for as long as battery performance does not dramatically improve in terms of costs, charging time, power density and the car’s lifespan. Thus, without substantial subsidies, they only really constitute a niche market.
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
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commodities, the OTC market also in
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IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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in the strength of the dollar: in N
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to this, there is the dominance of
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Page 22 and 23: Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
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Page 28 and 29: electric vehicles, which focuses on
Page 30 and 31: Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
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Page 34 and 35: Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
Page 36 and 37: is Japan itself, which has been ask
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
Page 40 and 41: Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
Page 42 and 43: Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
Page 44 and 45: low, and well below levels seen in
Page 46 and 47: has also taken into account the pot
Page 48 and 49: stronger than previously expected s
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Page 54: different picture. By 2035, Annex I
Page 57 and 58: 78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
Page 59 and 60: 80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
Page 61 and 62: 82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64: n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
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Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
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Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
Page 77 and 78: 98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in
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Page 85 and 86: 106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
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Page 89 and 90: 110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
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Page 95 and 96: 116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
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Page 101 and 102: 122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
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Page 111 and 112: 132 early support given to Brazil
Page 113 and 114: 134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
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138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
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140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
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142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
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144 identifies sustainable long-ter
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146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
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148 other international research an
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Section One

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