Section One

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Policies The Reference Case retains the principal that only policies that are already in place influence supply and demand patterns. The two key policies that are already factored in are the EU package of measures for climate change and renewable objectives and the US Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA). No change is anticipated for these two sets of policies in terms of how they might impact the Reference Case, as compared to the previous WOO. However, China’s recently announced 12 th FYP (2011–2015) is one area of policy development that could be considered as having an impact on the Reference Case (Box 1.4). Factors include the already mentioned slowing of economic growth, as well as a focus upon increasing energy efficiency, reducing carbon intensities, decreasing the share of fossil fuels in the energy mix, and a push for battery cell technology development with the annual production of 1 million electric vehicles by 2015, or approximately 2% of the current stock of vehicles in China. However, previous fiveyear targets have not always been achieved. Efficiency and energy mix developments Box 1.4 Energy and China’s 12 th Five Year Plan China’s 12 th FYP for National Economic and Social Development (2011–2015), released during the National People’s Congress Session in March this year underlines the importance of transforming the country’s energy production and consumption and takes positions on climate change and the environment. Given China’s expanding role in the global energy sector it is important to understand what the Plan might mean for the country’s future energy position. The section on energy contains three parts. The first is dedicated to energy supply and the diversification of energy sources. The other two parts refer to China’s geographical energy imbalance, in terms of having the majority of its resources located in the west of the country, while its main population hubs are found in the central and eastern regions. In addition, there is also mention of China’s commitment to international cooperation and the UN-led climate change negotiation process. The Chinese government has set its energy consumption target for 2011–2015. Its goal is that the country should consume no more than 2,800 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) a year by the end of the five-year period. This is a challenging target considering that in 2010, Chinese consumption was 2,580 mtoe, or just 47 Chapter 1
48 7.8% less than the target for 2015. In the previous five-year period, China’s energy consumption actually increased by around 39%. Given this, it can be assumed that China’s energy consumption goal might be difficult to attain, particularly when reviewing its plans in other areas, such as its modernization of rural society in order to create many more small- and mediumsized cities (population under five million). These cities can be expected to generate significant economic growth, and in turn, increase China’s energy consumption. In terms of the energy mix, fossil fuels are expected to see a fall in their share from around 92% to 89% in 2015. However, it is only coal that is slated to see an actual (significant) reduction in its share by the end of the period, although this should perhaps be viewed as ambitious. Any reductions will depend strongly on price reforms and cuts in power demand growth. The target for natural gas actually projects an increase in its share, to just over 8%, with oil remaining relative stable, at around 18%. Natural gas consumption is supported by positive commercial and policy drivers, and oil consumption will be driven by increases in gasoline and diesel demand as a result of more vehicle purchases. With regards to non-fossil fuel energies, the Plan foresees that 11% of primary energy consumption will come from these sources by 2015, as part of the move to diversify energy supplies. It is expected that there will be significant increases in both nuclear and renewables. China plans significant investment in nuclear energy to push its capacity beyond 40 gigawatts (GW) by 2015. The country had around 10GW capacity at the end of 2010. If China meets its five-year nuclear target, it will have gone a significant way to meeting its long-term target of having an installed nuclear capacity of 70GW by 2020. While China remains steadfast in its nuclear power ambitions, the disaster at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant earlier this year has caused some debate in Beijing. Nevertheless, China can be expected to continue to significantly increase its nuclear capacity. During the previous FYP, China became a major player in the wind and solar energy industries. This trend is expected to strengthen in the new FYP, although the anticipated jump from a 0.6% share for renewable (excluding hydropower) to 2.6% in 2015 may prove slightly beyond the country’s reach. The target share for hydropower remains fairly stable at 6.7% by the end of the period. In other areas, plans are already being turned into actions. For example, the Ministry of Science and Technology has started the first phase of the Plan for
Page 1 and 2: Section One
Page 4 and 5: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 6 and 7: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
Page 8 and 9: commodities, the OTC market also in
Page 10 and 11: IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
Page 12 and 13: in the strength of the dollar: in N
Page 14 and 15: to this, there is the dominance of
Page 16 and 17: Although these reduced growth targe
Page 18 and 19: Global and regional population leve
Page 20 and 21: average of 67% of the population in
Page 22 and 23: Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
Page 24 and 25: Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
Page 28 and 29: electric vehicles, which focuses on
Page 30 and 31: Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
Page 32 and 33: 40 years. While the early high perf
Page 34 and 35: Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
Page 36 and 37: is Japan itself, which has been ask
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
Page 40 and 41: Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
Page 42 and 43: Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
Page 44 and 45: low, and well below levels seen in
Page 46 and 47: has also taken into account the pot
Page 48 and 49: stronger than previously expected s
Page 50 and 51: d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
Page 52 and 53: Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
Page 54: different picture. By 2035, Annex I
Page 57 and 58: 78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
Page 59 and 60: 80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
Page 61 and 62: 82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64: n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
Page 65 and 66: ion (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,
Page 67 and 68: 88 Conventional powertrain technolo
Page 69 and 70: 90 acquisition costs, and the lower
Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
Page 73 and 74: 94 rose by an average of more than
Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
Page 77 and 78:
98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in
Page 79 and 80:
100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
Page 81 and 82:
102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
Page 83 and 84:
104 Figure 2.15 Share of industry i
Page 85 and 86:
106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
Page 87 and 88:
108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in
Page 89 and 90:
110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
Page 91 and 92:
112
Page 93 and 94:
114 In Canada, although the Outlook
Page 95 and 96:
116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
Page 97 and 98:
118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
Page 99 and 100:
120 limiting factor for feasible su
Page 101 and 102:
122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
Page 103 and 104:
124 some deposits will not be suffi
Page 105 and 106:
126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
Page 107 and 108:
128 Of utmost importance, in respec
Page 109 and 110:
130 influences and, therefore, brin
Page 111 and 112:
132 early support given to Brazil
Page 113 and 114:
134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
Page 115 and 116:
136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
Page 117 and 118:
138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
Page 119 and 120:
140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
Page 121 and 122:
142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
Page 123 and 124:
144 identifies sustainable long-ter
Page 125 and 126:
146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
Page 127 and 128:
148 other international research an
show all

Section One

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?