Section One

98
Table 2.13
Oil demand growth in marine bunkers in the Reference Case % p.a.
1990–2008 2008–2020 2020–2035
North America –1.1 0.0 –0.9
Western Europe 2.3 0.6 0.7
OECD Pacific 3.7 –7.6 –0.2
OECD 1.4 –0.6 0.2
Latin America 4.9 2.5 3.0
Middle East & Africa –0.3 1.0 0.7
South Asia -0.4 –4.0 –0.2
Southeast Asia 5.7 2.7 3.6
China 10.1 15.1 8.6
OPEC 4.6 2.0 4.2
Developing countries 5.0 4.4 5.2
Russia 0.0 6.8 5.6
Other transition economies 4.9 2.1 2.3
Transition economies 2.5 4.1 4.1
World 2.8 2.1 3.6
Other sectors
Petrochemicals
Oil use in the petrochemical sector accounts for over 10% of total oil use, both as
feedstock and as energy to transform these feedstocks into products. Thus, the prospects
for growth in this sector are an important element in assessing future demand
patterns. Growing demand for plastics, synthetic fibres, synthetic rubber, detergents,
paints, adhesives, aerosols, insecticides and pharmaceuticals, both for domestic consumption
and for trade, underpins the sector’s demand rise.
The greatest level of consumption at present is in OECD countries, with 61%
of total global use, with most of the rest, around 30%, in OPEC and developing Asia
countries (Figure 2.10). Since the early 1980s, new capacity has been progressively
added in all world regions, but particularly in the Middle East and Asia.
Regional developments, as well as other production technology- and environment-related
trends, contribute to this industry’s restructuring in terms of regional
capacity distribution, major players, feedstocks, global trades and economics.