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low, and well below levels seen in OECD countries (Figure 1.17). By 2035, oil use per head in developing countries will average just 3 barrels, compared to close to 12 barrels on average in the OECD. This comparison disguises even greater disparities: for example, by 2035, while close to 15 barrels per head will be consumed in North America, in regions such as Middle East & Africa and South Asia, only slightly higher than 1 barrel per head will be used. The key to future demand growth is the transportation sector of non-OECD countries (Figure 1.18), which accounts for 88% of the oil demand increase over the period to 2035. 34 Developing countries are also expected to see some rise in oil use in other sectors, particularly in industry – petrochemicals and other industrial uses – as well as in the residential/commercial/agriculture sector. Globally, the small amount of oil still used for electricity generation is expected to decline. In OECD countries, the declining use of oil is dominated by the fall in demand in road transportation due to efficiency improvements, as well as saturation effects that slow down the rate of increases in vehicle ownership. These trends are explored in more detail in Chapter 2. Oil supply Oil supply in the medium-term The medium-term Reference Case assessment of non-OPEC supply utilizes a large database covering more than 250 new upstream development projects. The expected pattern of crude and NGLs supply emerges from a risked analysis of new oil supply from fields that are to be developed, together with assumptions for the net growth/ decline in existing fields. A similar approach at the project level is undertaken to derive the Reference Case medium-term paths for biofuels and non-conventional oil, the latter of which consists primarily of Canadian oil sands. Fuller details of these assessments are contained in Chapter 3. As with demand, there are major uncertainties surrounding the expected future levels of supply from each world region. This has been reflected in the revisions to medium-term expectations made in earlier WOOs. Figure 1.19 shows, for example, that in the WOO 2009, there was a substantial downward revision to non-OPEC supply projections for 2015, from 57 mb/d in the WOO 2008 to 52.4 mb/d in the WOO 2009. 35 The context of preparing these reports is, of course, central to understanding the changing expectations. The WOO 2008, released in June of that year, was prepared at a time of high and rising oil prices and before the global financial crisis that hit later that year. At the time of writing the WOO 2008, mention was made of the short-term concerns of a significant US economic slowdown, but it was 65 Chapter 1
66 N We Figure 1.19 WOO projections for non-OPEC supply in 2015 58 57 56 55 54 53 52 51 50 mb/d L Other transitio Figure 1.21 (new) assumed that “downward pressures to economic growth are not prolonged”. On the other mb/d hand, the WOO 2009 was written while the global financial crisis was in full swing, 40 with the recognition that the subsequent recession could turn out to be “the longest and most Capacitywidespread Crude supply since the Second World War” and with oil prices having plummeted 35 at the end of 2008. It is thus no surprise that the WOO 2009 assessment of medium-term supply prospects emphasizes that “lower prices are leading to cancel- 30 lations and delays”. Downward revisions to non-OPEC supply were therefore made across every world region. 25 20 What these past revisions clearly reflect is that supply projections, as with demand, must reflect the emerging circumstances and the corresponding possible changes 15 in expectations for how future supply will evolve, at least in the Reference Case. Last year’s WOO had already become more bullish on the prospects for non- 10 OPEC supply, recognizing that “the potential short- and medium-term adverse impact 5 on oil supplies of the economic crisis, the debt financing difficulties and the low oil price environment has now eased”. This year’s revised Reference Case set of projections 0 continues that process, reflecting the more rapid recovery from recession and the higher 2010 price 2011 expectations 2012 that have 2013 been outlined 2014 earlier 2015 in this Chapter. It mb/d So Middle 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figure 1.19 Figure 1.22 Year of WOO
Page 1 and 2: Section One
Page 4 and 5: Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
Page 6 and 7: Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
Page 8 and 9: commodities, the OTC market also in
Page 10 and 11: IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
Page 12 and 13: in the strength of the dollar: in N
Page 14 and 15: to this, there is the dominance of
Page 16 and 17: Although these reduced growth targe
Page 18 and 19: Global and regional population leve
Page 20 and 21: average of 67% of the population in
Page 22 and 23: Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
Page 24 and 25: Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
Page 26 and 27: Policies The Reference Case retains
Page 28 and 29: electric vehicles, which focuses on
Page 30 and 31: Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
Page 32 and 33: 40 years. While the early high perf
Page 34 and 35: Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
Page 36 and 37: is Japan itself, which has been ask
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
Page 40 and 41: Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
Page 42 and 43: Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
Page 46 and 47: has also taken into account the pot
Page 48 and 49: stronger than previously expected s
Page 50 and 51: d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
Page 52 and 53: Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
Page 54: different picture. By 2035, Annex I
Page 57 and 58: 78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
Page 59 and 60: 80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
Page 61 and 62: 82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64: n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
Page 65 and 66: ion (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,
Page 67 and 68: 88 Conventional powertrain technolo
Page 69 and 70: 90 acquisition costs, and the lower
Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
Page 73 and 74: 94 rose by an average of more than
Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
Page 77 and 78: 98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in
Page 79 and 80: 100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
Page 81 and 82: 102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe
Page 83 and 84: 104 Figure 2.15 Share of industry i
Page 85 and 86: 106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
Page 87 and 88: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in
Page 89 and 90: 110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
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Page 93 and 94: 114 In Canada, although the Outlook
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116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
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118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
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120 limiting factor for feasible su
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122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
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124 some deposits will not be suffi
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126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
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128 Of utmost importance, in respec
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130 influences and, therefore, brin
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132 early support given to Brazil
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134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
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136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
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138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
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140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
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142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
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144 identifies sustainable long-ter
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146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
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148 other international research an
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Section One

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