Section One

Figure 1.13
Fossil fuel use per capita
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
mboe/d
Figure 1.13
OECD
Developing countries
1971 1990 2010 2035
The higher growth in developing Figure countries 1.14 is evidence of the greater economic
growth in these economies, but also due to the persistent existence of energy poverty
and the consequent huge requirement to satisfy future development needs with higher
energy use. mb/d Figure 1.12 shows that, by 2035, the OECD will still be consuming three
and a 97 half times more energy per capita than developing countries. If the comparison
is limited to fossil fuels alone, the ratio rises to almost six times as much (Figure 1.13).
96
Although the gap in energy use per head is closing, it is doing so slowly.
95
Oil demand
94
93
Oil demand in the medium-term
92
The global financial crisis of 2008 and the ensuing Great Recession had enormous
implications 91 for demand projections in both the short- and medium-term. For ex-
ample, the WOO 2009 documented how dramatically GDP forecasts for 2009 were
90
revised: while in July 2008 expected economic growth in OECD regions for this year
was in 89 the range of 1.3–1.6%, OECD economies actually shrunk by an average of
3.4%. This, in turn, had consequences for oil demand, which in OECD countries
88
87
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Year of WOO
59
Chapter
1