Section One

ion (millions)
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
86
Figure 2.8
Increase in volume of commercial vehicles, 2008–2035
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
millions
OECD and transition
economy countries
Figure 2.8
Other developing
countries
Asian developing
countries
as saturation effects tend to reduce the kilometres driven per car. Critical to the longterm
evolution of oil use per vehicle, however, is government policy and technological
development (Box 2.1). As discussed in Chapter 1, the US EISA and the EU package
of energy and climate change measures have been incorporated into the Reference
Case, which has direct implications for this variable. The measure of average oil use
per vehicle is therefore a very important scenario variable, reflecting major uncertainties
over future oil demand patterns.
Table 2.4 documents the Reference Case assumptions, which globally shows average
efficiency improvements of 1.7% p.a. OECD countries are assumed to see an
average decline of 1.5% p.a. in terms of oil use per vehicle, a more rapid fall than
that witnessed over the past two decades. This is a reflection of the new policies that
have been introduced. Developing countries see an average decline of 2.4% p.a., the
same as observed over the period 1990–2008. This could be viewed as a conservative
assumption of how future patterns might emerge, especially if policies develop that
target efficiencies in these countries, on top of the considerable potential for spillover
effects from developed to developing countries through technology diffusion. This
possibility, however, is left as a scenario option in Chapter 4 that explores the nature
of uncertainties regarding future demand patterns.