Section One

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Table 2.15 Growth in oil demand in the petrochemical sector in the Reference Case % p.a. 1990–2008 2008–2020 2020–2035 North America 2.1 –0.6 0.0 Western Europe 1.0 –1.2 –0.7 OECD Pacific 2.8 0.0 0.0 OECD 1.9 –0.6 –0.2 Latin America 1.5 1.6 1.2 Middle East & Africa –6.2 0.6 0.5 South Asia 5.4 2.0 1.9 Southeast Asia 7.1 1.7 1.5 China 5.2 3.0 0.5 OPEC 5.3 4.7 4.7 Developing countries 5.0 2.8 2.2 Russia 1.0 1.0 0.2 Other transition economies 0.1 0.8 0.8 Transition economies 0.9 0.9 0.3 World 2.7 0.8 0.9 shift was a move from oil to natural gas (Figures 2.12, 2.13 and 2.14). Although this strong decline in oil’s share limits the scope for further switching, it is likely that relative prices will continue to have impacts moving forward. This could be particularly influenced by the availability of large quantities of unconventional gas at discount prices compared to liquid fuels. However, there are some uses of oil in this sector that are essentially ‘captive’ in nature. A key example is the use of bitumen for roads and roofing. In contrast, there are ongoing downward pressures upon demand as the share of manufacturing in OECD GDP continues to decline. In sum, oil use in the OECD in this sector is expected to keep falling, but not quite as fast as observed in the past. Of the oil demand increase for developing countries in this sector over the period 1990–2008, China led the way with 39% of the increase, followed by South Asia and OPEC, both accounting for 19%. Combined, Asia and OPEC accounted for 85% of the rise in developing country oil use in the sector. For developing Asia, part of this rapid increase is linked to the growing share of industry in total GDP (Figure 2.15). Other important demand growth elements have been the use of bitumen for the construction of roads and increasing glass and cement production as infrastructure has developed. Due 101 Chapter 2
102 2.5 2.0 10 1.5 81.0 60.5 0 mboe/d Figure 2.11 Oil use in other industry 9 7 5 4 3 2 1 0 North America Western Europe OECD Pacific China Southeast Asia Figure 2.12 Oil and gas shares in energy use in other industry, North America Figure 2.12 45 50 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 20 mboe/d % % OPEC Russia South Asia Oil share Latin America Other trans. econ. Gas share 15 20 10 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 % Figure 2.11 OECD Developing countries Transition economies 1971 1990 2008 Oil share Gas share Figure 2.13 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Figure 2.14 mboe/d Middle East & Africa
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Section One
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Chapter 1 World oil trends: overvie
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Box 1.1 Regulatory reform in the en
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commodities, the OTC market also in
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IHS CERA upstream capital cost MOVE
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in the strength of the dollar: in N
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to this, there is the dominance of
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Although these reduced growth targe
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Global and regional population leve
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average of 67% of the population in
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Table 1.3 Population by urban/rural
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Figure 1.8 Real GDP by region in 20
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Policies The Reference Case retains
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electric vehicles, which focuses on
Page 30 and 31: Box 1.5 Shale gas: recent developme
Page 32 and 33: 40 years. While the early high perf
Page 34 and 35: Box 1.6 After Fukushima: unclear fo
Page 36 and 37: is Japan itself, which has been ask
Page 38 and 39: Figure 1.13 Fossil fuel use per cap
Page 40 and 41: Table 1.6 Medium-term Reference Cas
Page 42 and 43: Table 1.7 World oil demand outlook
Page 44 and 45: low, and well below levels seen in
Page 46 and 47: has also taken into account the pot
Page 48 and 49: stronger than previously expected s
Page 50 and 51: d 0 Conventional Figure 1.22 US & C
Page 52 and 53: Upstream investment Figure 1.25 mb/
Page 54: different picture. By 2035, Annex I
Page 57 and 58: 78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of
Page 59 and 60: 80 Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger
Page 61 and 62: 82 0 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990
Page 63 and 64: n (millions) 7,000 84 0 China Brazi
Page 65 and 66: ion (millions) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,
Page 67 and 68: 88 Conventional powertrain technolo
Page 69 and 70: 90 acquisition costs, and the lower
Page 71 and 72: 92 Figure 2.9 Increase in oil consu
Page 73 and 74: 94 rose by an average of more than
Page 75 and 76: 96 Table 2.10 Oil demand in rail an
Page 77 and 78: 98 Table 2.13 Oil demand growth in
Page 79: 100 Table 2.14 Oil demand in the pe
Page 83 and 84: 104 Figure 2.15 Share of industry i
Page 85 and 86: 106 Figure 2.16 Figure 2.16 Oil use
Page 87 and 88: 108 Table 2.19 Oil demand growth in
Page 89 and 90: 110 from 63% to 10% in Southeast As
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Page 93 and 94: 114 In Canada, although the Outlook
Page 95 and 96: 116 Non-OPEC Latin America’s prod
Page 97 and 98: 118 additional supply of 180,000 b/
Page 99 and 100: 120 limiting factor for feasible su
Page 101 and 102: 122 Table 3.4 Medium-term non-OPEC
Page 103 and 104: 124 some deposits will not be suffi
Page 105 and 106: 126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
Page 107 and 108: 128 Of utmost importance, in respec
Page 109 and 110: 130 influences and, therefore, brin
Page 111 and 112: 132 early support given to Brazil
Page 113 and 114: 134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
Page 115 and 116: 136 us to cooperate to lay the foun
Page 117 and 118: 138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
Page 119 and 120: 140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
Page 121 and 122: 142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
Page 123 and 124: 144 identifies sustainable long-ter
Page 125 and 126: 146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
Page 127 and 128: 148 other international research an
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Section One

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