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Chapter 2 Oil demand by sector This Chapter looks in more detail at oil demand developments at the sectoral level. Figure 2.1 shows the level of oil consumption in 2008 by sector for the OECD and non-OECD countries, while demand shares are shown in Figure 2.2. Transportation, consisting of road, aviation, internal waterways, rail and international marine bunkers, accounted for 55% of total oil consumption in 2008. Road is clearly the single most important transportation sector for oil use, in both OECD and non-OECD regions. The drivers behind future oil demand prospects in this sector are complex and varied: in OECD countries, car ownership will increasingly exhibit saturation effects, while the significant potential for future car ownership expansion in developing countries, will face some constraints, as congestion and local pollution may lead to future policies aimed at slowing expansion and pushing towards favouring public transport. Similarly, future developments in technology, and the rate of diffusion, coupled with consumer preferences, will have significant implications for future oil demand in this sector (Box 2.1). Figure 2.1 Oil demand by sector in 2008 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Elec. generation Residential/comm./agriculture Other industry Petrochemicals Marine bunkers Waterways/rail Aviation Road transportation Source: OECD/IEA Energy Balances of OECD/non-OECD countries, 2010. 37 100 mboe/d % Figure 2.1 Elec. generation Residential/comm./agriculture Other industry Petrochemicals Marine bunkers Waterways/rail Aviation Road transportation OECD Non-OECD Figure 2.2 77 Chapter 2 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 cars p
78 0 Figure 2.2 The distribution of oil demand across sectors in 2008 Figure 2.2 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 % Elec. generation Residential/comm./ agriculture Other industry Petrochemicals Marine bunkers Waterways/rail Aviation Road transportation 900 Elsewhere, some sectors will continue to rely on oil use. In non-OECD countries, total industrial oil consumption, including petrochemicals and other 800 OECD uses, accounted for Developing 31% of countries all oil demand in 2008, and is growing in importance. Transition economies Other 700sectors are expected to see oil use dwindle, for instance, the electricity generation sector in OECD countries, which has been on a downward trend since 600 the 1970s. 500 This underscores the importance of analyzing the various factors in play across 400 these sectors when making an assessment of oil demand prospects. 300 millions Road 200 transportation Passenger 100 car ownership OECD Non-OECD Elec. generation Residential/comm./ agriculture Other industry Petrochemicals Marine bunkers Waterways/rail Aviation Road transportation Figure 2.3 In 2008, there were almost 850 million passenger cars38 0 in the world, with almost 70% of these 1970 cars 1974 in OECD 1978 countries. 1982 1986 However, 1990 the 1994 share 1998 of cars 2002 in developing 2006 countries has been rising rapidly: from just 6% of the global stock in 1970 to more than 23% in 2008 (Figure 2.3). cars per 1,000 Figure 2.4 Elec. generation Residential/comm./ agriculture Other industry Petrochemicals Marine bunkers Waterways/rail Aviation Road transportation OECD Non-OECD World population (millions) 7,000 cars 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 10 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0
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Section One
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126 1.8 mb/d in 2010, to 2.7 mb/d i
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130 influences and, therefore, brin
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132 early support given to Brazil
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134 the call on OPEC crude by 2035
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138 Figure 4.1 Table 4.6 Oil supply
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140 COP-16, held in Cancun at the e
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142 in Article 4, paragraph 8, of t
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146 Beyond the oil sector, there ar
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148 other international research an
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