Section One

92
Figure 2.9
Increase in oil consumption in road transportation, 2008–2035
the entire period, as efficiency gains more than compensate for the expansion in the
number of vehicles. Figure 2.9 emphasizes that 95% of the oil demand increase in
Figure 2.11
road transportation will occur in developing Asia. Within a decade, non-OECD oil
use in this sector will be greater than in OECD countries.
Aviation
North America
Western Europe
OECD Pacific
10
9
92% of the increase
in road transportation
oil demand is in
developing Asia
Figure 2.9
In 2008, the aviation sector accounted for around 6% of world oil demand, with
the OECD making up around two-thirds of this. Over the period 1980–2008, oil
demand in this sector more than doubled. Freight tonnage and the number of passengers
carried by air increased at close to twice this rate, but efficiency gains from
improved aircraft design, materials and engines kept demand in check. At the same
time, load factors40 have improved steadily over the past three decades, at close to an
average of 1% p.a. Load factors are also known to respond to higher jet fuel prices.
Economies of scale have contributed to productivity increases, as the average aircraft
size has grown. It is a trend that is expected to continue in the future. EU-based airplane
manufacturer, Airbus, estimates a rate of 1.2% p.a. over the next 20 years, which
will help alleviate congestion at major airports. 41 Developing countries
8
Transition economies
7
6
5
4
3
2
Other efficiency gains have come
from operational 1 measures, such as taxiing using one engine, reducing the weight of
0
Russia
Latin America
Other transition economies
Middle East & Africa
Southeast Asia
South Asia
mboe/d
OPEC
China
–2 –1 0 1 2 3 4
OECD
1971 1990 2008
mboe/d