Section One

stronger than previously expected supply increases from US shale oil, as well as biofuels
growth, mainly in Europe and the US. These developments more than compensate
for expected declines in conventional oil in North America and the North Sea.
Table 1.8 also shows that an increase in OPEC NGLs is expected in the medium-term,
rising from 4.8 mb/d in 2010 to more than 6 mb/d by 2015. Combining
the Reference Case demand outlook with these expectations for non-OPEC supply
and OPEC NGLs suggests that the amount of OPEC crude that will be required
will rise slowly, from 29.3 mb/d in 2010 to 31.3 mb/d by 2015. This is 0.5 mb/d
higher than in the WOO 2010. Combined with OPEC production capacity estimates,
Figure 1.21 shows that spare OPEC crude oil capacity is set to stabilize
at around 8 mb/d over the medium-term, rising from an average level of around
4 mb/d in 2011.
Oil supply in the long-term
Long-term supply paths for conventional oil are developed using assessments of the
resource base, based largely upon estimates from the US Geological Survey (USGS) of
ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) of crude oil plus NGLs, although some adjustments
are introduced where recent production figures call for changing the original
USGS estimate for resources. The assessment has also taken into account the implications
of the slightly higher oil price assumption that has been made in the Reference
Case.
The Reference Case world oil supply outlook appears in Table 1.9. 36 Some of the
patterns that have been identified for the medium-term continue to manifest themselves
over the long-term. For example, increases in conventional supply from the
Caspian and Brazil, as well as steady increases in biofuels, oil sands and shale oil will
more than compensate for expected decreases in mature regions.
This is particularly the case for Asia and non-OPEC Middle East & Africa,
which over the long-term will join OECD regions in seeing a fall in conventional
oil production. Despite this, however, non-conventional oil supply growth will still
mean rising net levels of non-OPEC supply. Total non-OPEC non-conventional oil
supply rises by more than 11 mb/d over the years 2010–2035, as supply from the
Canadian oil sands, biofuels in the US, Europe and Brazil; and shale oil, particularly
in the US, continue to expand. On top of this, total NGLs supply, from OPEC
and non-OPEC, increases by 6 mb/d over the period 2010–2035, from 10.5 mb/d
in 2010 to almost 17 mb/d by 2035. In other words, the total increase in noncrude
liquids supply will satisfy more than three quarters of the demand rise to 2035
(Figures 1.22, 1.23 and 1.24).
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Chapter
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